Stats Guide: Prince Of Wales's Stakes

Last year's race

Winner: State Of Rest

Jockey: Shane M Crosse

Trainer: Joseph P O'Brien

Owner: State Of Rest Partnership

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 2lbs

Starting Price: 5/1

Season Form Figures: 13

Previous Best: 1st - Prix Ganay Stakes (Group 1), ParisLongchamp (May 2022)

By Paul Jones

This season’s renewal is building into being the race of the meeting, with the Irish Champion Stakes/Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Luxembourg, the Derby/King George winner Adayar , and the Champion Stakes 1-2 in Bay Bridge and My Prospero set to take each other on.

It used to be a case of concentrating on proven Group 1 winners, but Byword, Free Eagle, My Dream Boat, Crystal Ocean, Poet’s Word and Lord North were all winning at the highest level for the first time when successful here going back to 2010. My Prospero is yet to win at Group 1 level but did get within half a length or less of doing so on both visits to Ascot and was an eye-catching fourth in the Lockinge, over what now looks an inadequate mile for him.

Although we have had five recent odds-on favourites beaten (So You Think, Treve, A Shin Hikari, Cracksman and Bay Bridge), only one winner has started at longer odds than 8/1 since the upgrade to Group 1 status in 2000. Over a longer period of time, only four of the last 35 winners did not start in the first four in the betting.

Two years ago Love was a winning 11/10 favourite (in fact, it was a 1-2 for fillies, beating Audarya), so she joined Ouija Board and The Fugue as POW-winning fillies since the upgrade. In victory, she was giving Aidan O Brien a fourth success following Duke Of Marmalade, So You Think and Highland Reel. She was also winning on her seasonal debut, as was Free Eagle six years earlier.

With regards to recent form, 18 of the last 26 winners won last time out and three winners failed to make the first three on their previous outing in the same time span.

It can often be productive to note last season’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes, as six of the last 19 winners were beaten in this race 12 months ago. Bay Bridge was sent off 10/11 favourite last season but failed to reel in the tough, globetrotting State Of Rest, who made all the running.

With regards to key races run during the current campaign, the Prix Ganay and Tattersalls Gold Cup have fared best. The French won three runnings between 2007-2010 but none since. Iresene had Bay Bridge and Vadeni back in third and fourth at ParisLongchamp, and Luxembourg beat Bay Bridge into second at The Curragh last month when Vadeni finished with blood in his nostril and returned coughing. On both occasions Bay Bridge raced on the over-keen side.

Godolphin used to run their best 1m2f horse in this but following three wins on the spin between 2000-2002, they have struggled more recently, with just one success since with Rewilding. Adayar is looking to put that right.

Sir Michael Stoute won the POW with Stagecraft (1991) under Steve Cauthen, so it was a long wait before Poets Word took down the long-odds-on Cracksman five years ago, and then Crystal Ocean gave him back-to-back successes. His Bay Bridge looks like he will attempt to go one place better than last season.

Since Muhtarram won back-to-back runnings in 1995, only So You Think has won for horses aged older than five.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Winner last time out
Contested last season’s renewal

Negatives:
Yet to win a Group/Grade 1 race
Aged 6+
Unplaced last time out
Likely to start bigger than 8/1
Odds-on shots have a poor record