Stats Guide: Norfolk Stakes

Last Year's Race

Winner: The Ridler
Jockey: Paul Hanagan
Trainer: Richard A Fahey
Owner: Mr Steve Bradley
Age: 2 Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 50/1
Season Form Figures: 413
Previous Best: 3rd - bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes, Beverley (May 2022)

The Ridler pulled off a 50/1 surprise last season, thus extending the poor record of the favourite. South Central back in 2008 was the last successful market leader.

In winning as the 5/1 second-favourite four years ago, A’Ali became the first maiden to win the Norfolk in 29 years, having finished second on his debut at Ripon. The 2021 winner Perfect Power was also beaten on debut, but later added Group 1 successes after taking this Group 2.

Just five winners since 1991 had tasted defeat on their previous start, and 17 of the last 29 winners were unbeaten (nine of which had won their only start). All eight winners since 1997 that had run more than twice were beaten first time out.

Eight of Wesley Ward’s Royal Ascot victories were two-year-olds, including two in the Norfolk (though what he considers to be the best he has ever trained in Golden Pal was only second here), but perhaps more significantly, nine were achieved in races over 5f.

Richard Hannon last took the honours nine years ago with Baitha Alga and supplied the second and third in 2015. His father secured victories with Niche (1992), Lucky Lionel (1995) and Baron's Pit (2002), in addition to saddling two runners-up going back to 1994, so Team Hannon have to be very much respected.

Peter Chapple-Hyam has won this race on three occasions and also note William Haggas, who has saddled two winners - as now has Richard Fahey after taking the last two runnings. The Johnston stable have a sole success in 2003 winner Russian Valour, though they have also supplied three runners-up.

This 5f Group 3 contest is very much for precocious types and, as such, very few winners have made a serious impact the following season. Of winners since 1997, seven had previously been tried at further than 5f but, interestingly, that does include three of the last eight winners, two of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien.

The recent roll of honour of winning sires is packed with sprinters, so it is no surprise that 24 of the last 27 winners were by stallions with a Sire Index of no bigger than 8.3f, with nine of those being the produce of stallions with a Sire Index of less than 7f (even as short as 5.5f in 2021, with Ardad being the winning stallion), and there aren't too many of them.

Windsor form has also come to the fore, with five of the last 16 British-trained winners either winning or finishing second at the riverside track.

Four of the last 12 winners were drawn in the lowest two stalls in field sizes of 21, 18, 14 and 10.

At a glance summary

POSITIVES

By a stallion with a Sire Index of less than 7f
Undefeated
Ran over 5f in all starts (except Aidan O’Brien)
Trained by Richard Hannon, Wesley Ward, Richard Fahey, Peter Chapple-Hyam or William Haggas
Drawn in stall 1 or 2

NEGATIVES

The favourite
Beaten last time out
By a stallion with a Sire Index of more than 8f