Stats Guide: Jersey Stakes

Last year’s race

Winner: Noble Truth
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Owner: Godolphin
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 4/1
Season Form Figures: 1
Previous Best: 1st - King Charles II Stakes (Listed), Newmarket (April 2022)

By Paul Jones

It is far from uncommon that horses which contested a version of a Guineas for colts or fillies drop back a furlong in trip to win the Jersey Stakes at a lower level.

In fact, five of the last 11 winners had finished placed in a Guineas and two more were unplaced in the 2000 Guineas. Moreover, in two of the last nine years the 1-2-3 had all run in a Guineas beforehand as have all three of Aidan O’Brien’s Jersey Stakes winners but this seems likely to happen less so now that the recently-introduced Group 1 Commonwealth Cup has been such a hit and attracts the non-stayers from Newmarket more than this far less prestigious Group 3 contest.

O’Brien trails Sir Michael Stoute by three winners, the first of his six successes being back in 1977 and his last being Expert Eye in 2018. Charlie Appleby is chasing a hat-trick following the victories of Creative Force (who led a stable 1-2) and Noble Truth.

The tide is turning with regards to penalised runners as four of the last 12 winners (Strong Suit, Mustajeeb, Dutch Connection and Ribchester) defied a penalty following 24 consecutive years of unpenalised winners of the Jersey Stakes. That is more significant when we take on board that there have been just three penalised runners in the last four seasons so class has told.

Listed race winners have been successful on six occasions in the last 18 years. Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again until Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall became another two years later.

Ten of the last 24 winners won last time out and the best guide outside of a Classic has been the King Charles II Stakes won this season by Shouldvebeenaring. The 2006, 2007 and 2022 King Charles II winners followed up here and two more Jersey Stakes winners, Membership and Observatory, finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here.

Horses to finish unplaced last time out have won six of the last 25 runnings but three of those winners finished out of the frame in the 2000 Guineas, so perhaps best give them a pass.

The two 5/1 jt-favs finished first and second in 2021 before the 4/1 favourite struck last year meaning that half of the winners this decade were sent off as market leader. We had a turn up four years ago when Space Traveller won at 25/1 following a good run for the market leaders with five winners in six years sent off in the first four in the betting. In victory, Space Traveller was giving Richard Fahey a second fairly recent winner following Ribchester.

Rainfall and Ishvana have won for fillies in the last 12 runnings and nine of the last 11 winners had ran at least twice earlier in the season.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Contested any version of a Guineas (notably if finishing placed)
Penalised runners
Last-time-out winner
Listed race winner
Ran well in the King Charles II Stakes
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien or Richard Fahey
The favourite

Negatives:
Unplaced on most recent start unless in the 2000 Guineas