Stats Guide: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes

Last year's race

Winner: Saffron Beach

Jockey: William Buick

Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam

Owner: Mrs B V Sangster, J Wigan & O Sangst

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 7lbs

Starting Price: 5/2

Season Form Figures: 4

Previous Best: 1st - Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1), Newmarket (October 2021)

By Paul Jones

This Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile will be the 20th running since it was upgraded from being a Listed race at the September Meeting. A number of strong patterns have emerged since its upgrade.

Peeress (14/1) and Amazing Maria (25/1) were hard to find but the favourite or second-favourite has won on 11 occasions following Saffron Beach’s victory last year where she overcame one significant negative trend. In victory she became the first winner to defy a Group 1 winning penalty of 5lb from 14 to try and in some style too by 3½l. Usherette defied 3lb penalty seven years ago when an extra 2lb would have made no difference to that result.

All but four of the 19 winners since the race became part of Royal Ascot had won a Group 2 or Group 3 earlier in their career with another three having won at Listed level. As such, Move Swiftly would not have been on the radar of trends backers in 2019 being the first winner of the Duke of Cambridge not to have won at any of those levels.

Of the 19 winners when this race was run at Ascot (one running at York), six had previously recorded a victory at the course and another three had been placed at the previous year’s Royal Meeting so quality course form is certainly a bonus.

The leading connections have been Sir Michael Stoute and Cheveley Park Stud who have combined to win the race twice and also twice more separately.

The Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 2) at Epsom often throws up a leading hope and this season’s winner, Prosperous Voyage, is on target to double up under her Group 1 penalty having upset Inspiral in last season’s Falmouth Stakes.

The Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) at the Guineas Meeting has been a notable guide as the last nine winners to take their chance here have produced two winners, two seconds and a third plus Integral finished second eight years ago before adding this more sought-after prize. This season’s Dahlia saw Via Sistina streak to a 6l success.

The Gosden stable are chasing a third win in four years after victories for Nazeef and Indie Angel and have joined Sir Michael Stoute (also had four seconds) on four victories. Godolphin have supplied four beaten favourites but the Andre Fabre-trained Usherette put that right for them as the market leader seven years ago. The French are not to be underestimated having supplied three winners, two seconds and three thirds so pay any Gallic rivals plenty of respect.

Four-year-olds have had much the best of it leading their older rivals 16-3 but they have held a numerical advantage making up approximately three-quarters of the total runners so don't read too much into that.

At a glance summary

Positives:
The favourite or second-favourite
Contested the Dahlia Stakes (the winner especially)
Winning course form
Won or placed at Royal Ascot last year
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, John & Thady Gosden or in France
Owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives:
Running under a Group 1 penalty
Yet to win a Group race