Stats Guide: Coventry Stakes

Last year's race

Winner: Bradsell

Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Trainer: Archie Watson

Owner: Victorious Racing Limited

Age: 2

Weight: 9st 3lbs

Starting Price: 8/1

Season Form Figures: 1

Previous Best: 1st - Class 3 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes, York (May 2022)

By Paul Jones

Despite the 150/1 success of Nando Parrado three years ago (and that was just two weeks into the turf season following the return to racing during Covid, so a weakened renewal), the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since it was promoted to Group 2 status 19 years ago, with as many as nine favourites or joint-favourites obliging in the last 17 years.

Nando Parrado became just the fifth winner since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 that failed to start in the first five in the betting, and three of those were trained at Ballydoyle.

Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the race’s long history with nine winners but, outside of the Chesham Stakes over 7f, he prefers to get two runs into any two-year-olds that he sends to Royal Ascot. He has managed that with River Tiber, who is two-from-two and has been ante-post favourite since making a winning debut, but we must also respect O’Brien’s other runners as three of his contenders that were not his shortest-priced representative have also won.

The best Irish guide has been the Marble Hill Stakes, with the same stable’s Power and Caravaggio completing the double since 2011, but their representative this year, His Majesty, could only finish third behind Givemethebeatboys and Noche Magica.

Last-time-out winners are usually a must, as until Nando Parrado only Harbour Master had won off the back of a defeat in the last 39 runnings.

However, usually at least 50% of the field are last-time-out winners, and it has definitely paid to concentrate on unbeaten horses. I very much like the strike rate of winners of their only start, having won half of the last 30 runnings - Bradsell being the latest last year. Asadna was a 12-length winner at Ripon on his only start and is the shortest-priced contender of those with that profile. The once-raced profile is also favoured for the fillies’ equivalent race at the meeting over 6f, the Albany Stakes.

Six of the last 10 winners were drawn no more than three stalls away from either rail, with two of those drawn highest of all (War Command and Berkshire Shadow) - so closest to the stands’ rail.

The Hannon stable has the best record of British-based yards with relatively recent wins for Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit, who both won a maiden at Newbury at the Lockinge meeting. Threat went close for the yard in the 2019 running of the Coventry, finishing second after winning at the Lockinge meeting, and their Dapper Valley struck at that fixture this season. The Andrew Balding-trained Berkshire Shadow also won a Newbury maiden ahead of him winning this prize.

Two of the last eight Woodcote winners went on to win at Royal Ascot, including Buratino (won by 6 lengths) in the Coventry, and this season’s contest was won by Bobsleigh.

As an aside, five Coventry Stakes winners between 2007-2012 also went on to win at Royal Ascot the following season.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Unbeaten (preferably one run and one win)
Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon
The favourite
Drawn in the highest or lowest three stalls
Winner of a Newbury maiden race

Negatives:
Beaten last time out
Outside the front five in the betting