Stats Guide: Britannia Stakes

Last Year's race:

Winner: Thesis
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Trainer: Roger Charlton
Owner: Juddmonte
Age: 3 Weight: 8st 11lbs
Starting Price: 14/1
Season Form Figures: 222
Previous Best: 2nd - Class 5 Novice, Doncaster (June 2022)

Featuring approximately 30 three-year-olds, the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season.

That said, despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a fair race for favourites with five of the last 24 obliging in such a big field and Turgenev under Dettori looked like making that six four years ago until caught late on by Biometric thwarting a massive plunge from 20/1 into 7/2 with Frankie having ridden the previous four winners on the card. In fact, 20 of the last 32 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting so this isn’t punter’s nightmare that many believe to be the case.

An emerging pattern is that seven of the last 12 winners won a handicap on their previous start which is in stark contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top. Some punters fall into the trap of backing a flashy, last-time-out maiden winner from a big yard but no horse with such a profile has won since John Gosden's North Song 26 years ago. Last year’s winner, Thesis, was a maiden having finished second in all three starts in maiden/novice races earlier in the season.

The 2015 winner, War Envoy, had previously finished last in the French Derby so he had a most unusual profile for a Britannia winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was certainly not a trends horse therefore and that included on the weight front too at the time as he carried 9st 6lb. However, four of the last winners have now carried over 9st. Two of the last six winners crept in as the bottom weight.

Some viewed Saga as an unfortunate runner-up last season so it’s been a while since John Gosden last saddled the winner but it is still worth noting that going back to and including 1994, he has trained four winners, two seconds and four thirds from 43 runners. Significantly, all four of his winners ended their juvenile season without a victory and also failed to break their maiden tag at first time of asking as a three-year-old. James Fanshawe is another name to strongly consider with a winner and three placed horses from his last four runners.

It is not often that I give jockey trends but, for a massive-field handicap, it is some achievement for Jamie Spencer to have ridden the winner on four occasions since 2003, underlining that he’s probably the best exponent of the hold-up ride in big-field, straight-course handicaps at Ascot.

As far as the draw is concerned, like with many major straight-course handicaps, it often pays to look very low or very high as half of the last 24 winners were drawn no more than five positions off either rail. Although Ostilio may have been drawn 15 five years ago, he soon led the main group in a clear lead against the near rail and never looked like being caught under another Silvestre de Sousa front-running masterclass.

POSITIVES

Won a handicap last time out
First six in the market (the favourite also has a solid record)
Drawn in the lowest or highest five stalls
Trained by John & Thady Gosden or James Fanshawe
Ridden by Jamie Spencer

NEGATIVES

Last-time out maiden winner