Squire Creek may not be unbeatable in Jersey Shore Stakes

Squire Creek, in from Kentucky for trainer Brad Cox, figures to be heavily favored to win the $100,000 Jersey Shore Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park, but Swirvin, in from Florida by way of Saratoga for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., might have something to say.

Those two are among nine in the Jersey Shore, a six-furlong dash for 3-year-olds. This essentially is the second Monmouth race in the division in three weeks since the My Frenchman on July 16, another 3-year-old sprint, was rained onto dirt from turf. The second- and third-place finishers from that race, Super Chow and Freedom Road, return for the Jersey Shore, but neither of those two are likely to beat Squire Creek.

A sharp debut sprint winner at Fair Grounds on March 2, Squire Creek came back the next month with an equally eye-catching first-level allowance score at Keeneland. A length and a half behind him that day was Blue Light, who since has won a first-level allowance sprint with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure, and in third was Deer District, who has hit 97 on the Beyer scale and last weekend finished second in the Amsterdam at Saratoga.

Squire Creek was a well-beaten second making his stakes debut at Belmont Park in the Gold Fever and more recently was a well-beaten third in the Maxfield at Ellis Park, but neither defeat should entirely be held against him. At Belmont, he took a very sound bump after the start that contributed to Squire Creek racing a couple lengths behind the pacesetters. He came out to make a move at Drew’s Gold, who turned him away, then returned to record a 106 Beyer finishing second in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens.

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At Ellis, heavy rain hit after the sixth race on July 2, and when Squire Creek raced, the surface was sloppy and sealed. The three dirt winners on the card following the rain all cleaved to a golden rail, and in the Maxfield, Squire Creek broke from the outside post in a seven-horse field, chasing pacesetting winner Ryvit, who rode the fence to an easy victory. Mullikin, the runner-up, followed Ryvit’s inside trip, catching Squire Creek at a seven-furlong distance perhaps farther than Squire Creek’s best.

Still, at such a short price there’s no reason to work too hard finding excuses for Squire Creek. Swirvin makes his fourth career start and runs for the first time since a strange fourth June 21 in the $100,000 Carry Back at Gulfstream Park. Head and head on a fast pace to the half-mile pole, Swirvin came totally off the bridle and looked destined for a last-place finish before suddenly finding stride again at the quarter pole. Closing on a fading Super Chow, Swirvin was steadied just before the finish when runner-up Khozeiress came out, and while fourth, Swirvin was beaten little more than one length.

The colt breezed steadily in Florida before posting one work at Saratoga, a near-bullet half mile on July 31, and he looks like all the value from a favorable outside draw.

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