Spotlight on Hit Show as he takes on 11 in the Fayette

A neck separated Hit Show and Tumbarumba when they last met. More than 7,000 miles separate the site of their last meeting and the venue where they race Sunday in the Fayette Stakes.

Hit Show finished fifth by seven lengths March 28 in the $12 million Dubai World Cup. Tumbarumba was seventh, and if either horse can produce roughly the same performance in the Grade 3, $350,000 Fayette at Keeneland, they probably will be competitive.

Probably, but not assuredly, because the Fayette drew a wildly competitive and bracingly large field of older horses. A dozen can start in the 1 1/8-mile fixture, and So Sandy, a 13th entrant, was stuck on the also-eligible list.

The field included Nevada Beach, third as the 6-5 favorite last out in the Grade 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita, a race he won in 2025, and Stars and Stripes, second behind Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Forever Young in the four-runner Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 18 at Belmont.

Silent Tactic won the Oklahoma Derby in his last start. San Siro captured the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood at Parx Racing. Willy Ds won the $1 million Charles Town Classic last out. “Diverse” barely scrapes the surface of this cast.

Hit Show sits squarely at the center of any Fayette conversation. He has, after all, won this race the last two years.

Six-year-old Hit Show, upset winner of the 2025 Dubai World Cup, has been a good horse, and roughly the same horse, since he was 3. He was fifth in the Kentucky Derby with a 98 Beyer and fourth in the Belmont with a 99, and at ages 5 and 6, Hit Show essentially tops out as a grinding 100 Beyer kind of horse who requires, at minimum, nine furlongs to do his work.

His distant fifth-place finish with a mere 86 Beyer last out in the Pacific Classic is not as poor a race as it seems. Hit Show made a sustained inside bid from not all that far off a scorching tempo, still was in marginal contention at the head of the stretch, but then, like every horse anywhere near the pace other than victorious Knightsbridge, his tank went empty.

Brad Cox trains Hit Show and Brian Lynch trains Tumbarumba, but both horses campaign for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s Wathnan Racing. Wathnan is a Qatari entity and likes to race in the Middle East, and Tumbarumba after a good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile left Lynch and went overseas. He finished a surprisingly competitive third in the $20 million Saudi Cup and looked like something more than a miler staying on for second in the 1 3/16-mile Maktoum Classic.

Tumbarumba has the 2027 Saudi Cup as a goal, Lynch said, and will make only two starts in America before leaving again. He still can contend in the Fayette. Only during the second part of his 5-year-old season did Tumbarumba hit peak form. Preparing for this comeback run, Tumbarumba has breezed every six to eight days since Aug. 2.

“Physically, he looks the part, and he’s really a mature horse now,” Lynch said. “He’s a big, strong son of a gun. He’s been training great. He’s going to give us some kind of thrill Saturday.”

Stars and Stripes won the Ben Ali this past April at Keeneland racing over 1 3/16 miles, and 1 1/8 miles might be too short for him. In August, Stars and Stripes captured the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone before defeating two foes and losing to Forever Young in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The 12 furlongs of the Greenwood Cup helped San Siro, but the 5-year-old gelding traveled through the race like an improved version of his previously solid self.

“He probably wants every bit of distance that he can get, but I think he’s better now,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “He’s always been a very good work horse, and he’s training great.”

San Siro should get the fast pace he needs, and Nevada Beach, who probably needed the Goodwood, his first start in seven months, could get swept up into the hot tempo.

A horse like No Bien Ni Mal might look at least mildly competitive in a standard renewal of the Fayette. He sits at 30-1 on the morning line for this one.