Speedy trio takes on Far Right in Southwest Stakes

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. – The leading contenders in the Grade 3, $300,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday are difficult to separate, but the speed that Mr. Z, J S Bach and Bayerd bring into the 1 1/16-mile race could give them a tactical edge over late-running rivals Far Right, Bold Conquest, and The Truth Or Else.

The Southwest, which drew 12 but is expected to go with 11 due to the anticipated scratch of DRF Derby Watch member War Story, is something akin to the first round of 3-year-old playoffs at Oaklawn. It’s one of two major preps for the Arkansas Derby – the other being the Grade 2, $750,000 Rebel on March 14 – and its first four finishers will split up 17 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, with the winner securing 10.

Just as challenging as sorting out the Southwest – which draws added depth from Private Prospect, a multiple stakes winner, and Kantune, who two back at Santa Anita ran third to the well-regarded Prospect Park – is the forecast for Monday. The Weather Channel is calling for a high of 35 degrees, with freezing rains in the morning and an 80 percent chance of precipitation the remainder of the day.

Mr. Z and J S Bach figure to play off the break. J S Bach will start from the rail following a romping maiden special weight win at Gulfstream Park, while Mr. Z goes from post 10 off a third-place finish to Derby Watch member Far Right in last month’s $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.

“We’ll see how it draws up and make some decisions from there,” said D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Mr. Z.

The same will be the case for J S Bach.

“We’ll see how the race looks,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains J S Bach. “He’s adaptable to a couple of scenarios.”

Southwest Stakes (Race 9)

KEY CONTENDERS

Mr. Z (Last 3 Beyers: 85-91-90)

* He was favored in the Smarty Jones off a close third-place finish to Dortmund in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. Mr. Z was prominent from the start in the Jan. 19 race at Oaklawn but drifted sharply in the stretch, lost position, then mounted a second rally to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind Far Right.

“I really look for a good performance,” Lukas said of Mr. Z. “He’s had a great month since the Smarty Jones.”

* Mr. Z could get an ideal tracking trip behind J S Bach and perhaps Bayerd, a two-time stakes winner and the runner-up in the Smarty Jones.

* Under the conditions of the Southwest, Mr. Z will carry 115 pounds, seven fewer than possible favorite Far Right, who totes a race-high 122.

* Corey Nakatani has the mount for Zayat Stables.

Far Right (Last 3 Beyers: 89-83-76)

* He closed from last in the Smarty Jones and will pick up more distance off the one-mile race that ended at the sixteenth pole.

“I think that’s a good thing for us,” said Ron Moquett, who trains Far Right for Harry Rosenblum and Robert LaPenta. “If everything works out like we think it will, then I think the distance will be exactly what we need.”

* Far Right will break from post 2 under Mike Smith.

J S Bach (Last 2 Beyers: 87-92)

* He made his two-turn debut in a Gulfstream Park maiden race at 1 1/16 miles and led throughout for an 8 1/2-length win Jan. 17.

“He’s a horse that has good early speed,” Pletcher said. “He can sit off of it. He has a high cruising speed.”

* John Velazquez has the mount for Don Dizney.

Private Prospect (Last 3 Beyers: 84-73-85)

* He enters off a close fourth-place finish in the Smarty Jones, a race in which he was forced to steady past the five-eighths pole and alter course, noted trainer Mike Campbell.

* Private Prospect was making his first start in 2 1/2 months in the Smarty Jones.

* Alex Birzer has the mount for Mellon Patch Inc.

Bold Conquest (Last 3 Beyers: 70-83-72)

* He is making his first start since running third to Carpe Diem in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 4. The Breeders’ Futurity has produced three next-out winners, all in stakes, at Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park West, and Retama Park.

* Ricardo Santana Jr. has the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Truth Or Else (Last 3 Beyers: 64-74-79)

* He will add Lasix following a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in his last start Nov. 29.

* The Truth Or Else was third in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont last October.

* Calvin Borel has the mount for trainer Ken McPeek.