Spectacular Gem may offer value in crowded Woodchopper

Who would’ve thought that Sir Winston, winner of the Belmont Stakes over 1 1/2 miles on dirt last June 8, and Hog Creek Hustle, winner of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens over seven furlongs on dirt during the same June 8 Belmont card, would meet going one mile on turf in the $75,000 Woodchopper Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds?

No one, probably, and in fact, they won’t.

Trainer Vickie Foley said earlier this week that Hog Creek Hustle would be scratched from the Woodchopper, even if the race is rained onto dirt.

And unless the Woodchopper is rained onto dirt, Sir Winston, who hasn’t raced since riding a golden rail to victory in the Belmont, might not have a great chance. Granted, it was early in his career and before he began racing in blinkers, but Sir Winston performed poorly in his only previous grass race and his connections are racing him here as a stepping-stone to 2020, not because of a burning desire to experiment with grass racing.

Moreover, there are plenty of capable turf entrants in the Woodchopper, which drew an overflow field of 16. Fourteen horses can start and at least one of the also-eligibles will get a chance since Hog Creek Hustle is headed to the Jan. 18 Duncan F. Kennner Stakes over six furlongs on dirt.

The selection to win is Spectacular Gem, who would offer value at something close to his 8-1 morning-line odds. Spectacular Gem finished fifth last out in the Commonwealth Turf, beaten less than three lengths while racing over a laboring course he probably didn’t love. Spectacular Gem wound up getting too much of a pace that was relatively strong considering course conditions, and one only need to look two and three starts back to find performances that could win the Woodchopper. Spectacular Gem scored a win and a strange-trip second over the Fair Grounds course last meet and might be able to tuck in right behind a couple other pace players.

Tracksmith finished second ahead of Spectacular Gem in the Commonwealth but drew post 13 for the Woodchopper and lacks Spectacular Gem’s early speed to help establish decent early position. Spectacular Gem also beat him two starts back and Tracksmith could wind up a shorter price Saturday.

The Last Zip beat older horses at the first allowance level last out, is 1-2-1 from four starts at this one-mile trip, and seems likely to show the way Saturday. Flying Scotsman basically has gone through a lost 3-year-old season but showed vast potential at age 2, and it’s too early to say he can’t realize the early promise in just his sixth career start. He’s drawn on the fence and will have to switch off behind horses to have a chance.