Spa Babies for 7/27

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Yesterdays results:
Race 2: Cozy Mesa ran a terrible sixth.
Race 8: Readys Image won easily, but did not meet our odds qualification.

Friday, July 27, 2007
Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (NY-bred)
2-year-olds
Purse $56,000

1. Lauries Lion (Catienus A Shaky Queen, by Wavering Monarch)
Trainer: John Destefano Jr.
Foaled April 25, 2005 In New Yorksire was a stakes-winning router on dirt (22-5-5-2, $370,386, 2-4 at two on grass in England, unraced in dirt sprints)sire was 10-114 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (has four older debut winners this year, two in routes, two on Polytrack)dam was a winner (56-12-8-3, $231,191, unraced at two, 0-2 in dirt sprints, all wins on grass, sold for $3,000 as a yearling, $19,000 as a juvenile, and $14,000 as a juvenile)dam has eight foals of racing age, seven runners, five winners, no juvenile runnerssecond dam a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Fabulous Charger (15-4-2-3, $26,427, unraced at two, all races sprinting)dams sire is the broodmare sire of one debut winner this yeartrainer is 1-16 (6%, $0.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (0-1 at Saratoga).

2. Blue Flight (Phone Trick Golden Hen, by Native Prospector)
Trainer: Harold James Bond
Foaled March 2, 2005 in New Yorkwithdrawn short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), out yearling (Keeneland September 2006), $67,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006), $105,000 juvenile (OBS March 2007)full brother to multiple stakes-placed Insinger (45-11-6-11, $199,405, 0-2 at two, 8-33 in dirt sprints)sire was a multiple Grade 2-winning sprinter (10-9-1-0, $395,112, unraced at two, all races sprinting)sire is 67-450 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (has two debut winners this year, one juvenile, one New York-bred)dam was unplaced (2-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, all starts in dirt sprints)dam has seven foals of racing age, six runners, five winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winnersdam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Super Diamond (37-16-5-5, $1,469,233)dams sire is the broodmare sire of one debut winner this yeartrainer is 2-37 (5%, $0.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (2-11, 18%, $1.07 ROI at Saratoga)worked 1 furlong in 10.40, and a quarter-mile in a bullet 21 seconds flat prior to the March saleJuly 21 workout matches up with barns 3-year-old filly Silver Elegance (52 Beyer top).

3. Yukon Gold Rush (Gold Fever Calm At Sunset, by Candis Gold)
Trainer: Dominic Galluscio
Foaled April 19, 2005 in New Yorkwithdrawn yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006)sire was a Grade 1 winner at a mile (18-7-4-1, $480,712, 3-6 at two, 4-9 in dirt sprints)sire is 13-150 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (has one older debut winner this year)dam was a winner (47-6-1-5, $84,343, 1-5 at two, 4-30 in dirt sprints)dam has three foals of racing age, two runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winnerdam a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Jeep Shot (42-9-9-4, $110,683, 3-7 at two, won debut, 4-22 in dirt sprints)dams sire is the broodmare sire of two debut winners this yeartrainer is 3-60 (5%, $0.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (3-21, 14%, $2.59 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has two older debut winners this year (one statebred, both with Lasix on).

4. Another Gulch (Thunder Gulch Multiplicity, by Fastness)
Trainer: Thomas Bush
Foaled March 8, 2005 in New York$75,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006)sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (16-9-2-2, $2,915,086, 2-6 at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints)sire is 19-225 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (has four debut winners this year, one juvenile, one routing, one sprinting on grass) dam was a stakes-winning router (33-4-6-6, $145,861, 2-9 at two, 0-5 in dirt sprints, sold for $17,000 as a yearling, and $55,000 as a juvenile)this is dams first foaldam a half-sister to stakes-winner Sahara King (81-17-11-18, $540,922, 0-3 at two, 3-24 in dirt sprints)trainer is 6-47 (13%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (2-10, 20%, $6.24 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has three older debut winners this year (two statebreds, all with Lasix on, one with front bandages)June 10 workout matches barns juvenile filly Buona Sera (finished third in yesterdays open maiden special weight with 66 Beyer)June 27 workout went .04 faster than Buona Sera.

5. Dos Hombres (Top Account Morning Galaxy, by Morning Bob)
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Foaled May 11, 2005 in New Yorksire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (30-10-5-4, $466,819, 1-3 at two, 7-22 in dirt sprints)sire is 30-278 (11%) with juvenile runnersdam was a winner (16-1-0-1, $20,360, 0-3 at two, 1-4 in dirt sprints)dam has eight foals of racing age, seven runners, one winner, four juvenile runners, no juvenile winnerssecond dam sold for $25,000 as a yearling, and for $100,000 as a juveniletrainer is 3-27 (11%, $1.30 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (0-3 with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

6. Tribolet (Hook and Ladder Ervs Duck, by Hagley)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled May 16, 2007 in New York$75,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006), $70,000 RNA juvenile (OBS March 2007), $115,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2007)half-brother to Group 1 winner Ervs Line (65-14-14-16, $240,325, 2-5 at two, 4-29 in dirt sprints, big win in Puerto Rico), stakes-placed Ervs Creek (71-3-10-7, $67,846, 0-8 at two, 0-18 in dirt sprints), and Group 1-placed juvenile Frontier Duck (38-6-9-4, $62,823, 2-9 at two, 3-16 in dirt sprints, Group 1-placed in Puerto Rico)first-crop sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (19-6-2-3, $388,120, 1-1 at two, 6-18 in dirt sprints)sire is 4-7 (57%) with juvenile debut runners (two New York-breds, one trained by Pletcher)dam was a stakes-winner (45-9-8-6, $129,693, 0-1 at two, 8-42 in dirt sprints, sold for $15,000 as a yearling)dam has 10 foals of racing age, nine runners, seven winners, eight juvenile runners, three juvenile winnerssecond dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Backseat (17-2-2-3, $9,019)trainer is 89-386 (23%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (22-98, 22%, $1.54 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has 15 debut winners this year (four statebreds, one by Hook and Ladder, all with Lasix, eight with John Velazquez, 10 juveniles, one for Dogwood Stable)worked 1 furlong in 10.40 prior to the March saleworked 1 furlong in 10.40 prior to the May saleJuly 14 workout matches up with barns juvenile Rancho Santa Fe (finished fourth on turf in career debut on July 22 with 52 Beyer)July 21 workout matches up with barns juvenile Forest Prince (finished fifth in career debut here on Wednesday with 30 Beyer).

7. Revealer (Freud Mighty Emy, by Mighty Adversary)
Trainer: David Donk
Foaled April 29, 2005 in New York$35,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006), $55,000 RNA (OBS February 2007)full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Mighty Eros (2-2-0-0, $84,600, unraced at two, both races sprinting)sire was Group 2-placed on turf in Ireland (12-1-2-1, $44,016, 0-3 at two, unraced on dirt)sire is 9-57 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (has three debut winners this year, two juveniles, one older statebred full sister to this colt)dam was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (13-2-3-0, $42,688, 2-7 at two, won debut, 2-9 in dirt sprints)dam has six foals of racing age, five runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, one older debut winnerdam a half-sister to stakes-placed Summer Lucky (46-5-13-7, $139,782, 2-13 at two, 2-19 in dirt sprints), multiple stakes-winner Mop Squeezer (26-6-0-7, $143,037, unraced at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints), and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Jacksrbetter (6-2-1-0, $90,822, all races sprinting at two)trainer is 4-82 (5%, $1.89 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (1-12, 8%, $5.96 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has one older debut winner this year (Finger Lakes route maiden claimer, Lasix on)worked one furlong in 11.20, and another furlong in 10.40 prior to the February saleJuly 4 workout went .02 faster than barns juvenile Gunsmoke (finished fifth in career debut on turf on July 13 with 49 Beyer).

8. Cape of Storms (Cape Town U R Theweakestlink, by Mountain Cat)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled February 23, 2005 in New York$13,500 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Open August 2006)sire was a Grade 1 route winner (12-5-1-1, $795,817, 3-6 at two, 2-5 in dirt sprints)sire is 55-291 (19%) with juvenile runnersdam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, lost sprinting, sold for $35,000 as a yearling, and $13,000 as a juvenile)this is dams first foaldam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mellow Roll (24-7-4-4, $555,775, 5-7 at two, won debut, 4-14 in dirt sprints)trainer is 6-127 (5%, $1.13 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on dirt (1-13, 8%, $2.14 ROI with juveniles on dirt at Saratoga).

Analysis:
The trainer-jockey combination of Tom Bush and Alan Garcia sent out 27-1 winner Strong Presence on Opening Day, and they may have another live runner in ANOTHER GULCH. Although bred to appreciate more distance, the son of juvenile winner Multiplicity shows some interesting breezes out of the gate, and may have found a moderate New York-bred group for his debut.
CAPE OF STORMS holds the experience edge over his rivals, and did not have an easy trip in his most recent start against open company at Churchill Downs. In his two prior races, he faced a runaway winner from the Pletcher barn, and competed in a Grade 3 stakes. He draws a cozy outside post position, and looms the horse to beat. BLUE FLIGHT worked a bullet quarter-mile at the OBS Sale with blinkers on, and he changed leads nicely coming out of the turn. He looked good that day, and attracts Garrett Gomez for his career debut. Trainer James Bond is 1-42 (2%) over the last two years with first-time starters, however.
DOS HOMBRES passed tired horses when green in his debut, and needs to improve. TRIBOLET debuts for the dangerous Pletcher barn, but the works look merely ho-hom, and Pletcher's first couple of juvenile firsters have not impressed.

Selections:
1. Another Gulch
2. Cape of Storms
3. Blue Flight

The play: Another Gulch to win and place at 6-1 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 4-2-3 (+$6.20)