Spa Babies for 7/25

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $62,000

1. Noble Hero (Vindication Future Guest, by Copelan)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Foaled April 4, 2005 in Kentucky$250,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to Grade 2 juvenile winner Rulers Court (8-3-1-1, $235,900, 2-4 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting)half-brother to Grade 3-placed turfer Wise River (8-2-3-1, $99,075, 2-3 at two, won debut, all races on grass)first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting)sire is 3-11 (27%) with juvenile firsters (two on synthetic tracks)dam was a winner (35-3-6-4, $77,220, 0-5 at two, 1-20 sprinting)dam has six foals of racing age, five starters, five winners, five juvenile runners, five juvenile winners, two juvenile debut winnersdam is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Whata Brainstorm (31-6-6-1, $623,090, 3-9 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints)dams sire is the broodmare sire of five debut winners in 2007trainer is 10-112 (9%, $0.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (0-15 at Saratoga)trainer has one debut winner this year (juvenile at Churchill Downs with Lasix on)July 21 workout matches up with barns juvenile Georgetown (finished third in lone start at Churchill Downs on June 30 at 4-5 odds with 71 Beyer).

2. Doctor Cal (Distorted Humor Fancy Clancy, by Rahy)
Trainer: William Mott
Foaled January 30, 2005 in Kentuckysire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (23-8-5-3, $769,964, unraced at two, 7-13 sprinting)sire is 31-168 (18%) with juvenile firsters (has four older debut winners this year)dam was a winner (9-3-1-0, $67,210, unraced at two, all races on grass)dam has three foals of racing age, two starters, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winnersdam is a half-sister to French turf stakes-winner Fabuleux Dancer, French Group-3 placed turfer Danseur Fabuleux (dam of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Arazi, and Group 1 turf winner Noverre), Grade 3 winner Doubles Partner (12-6-1-0, $180,629, 1-2 at two, 3-6 in dirt sprints), French stakes-placed juvenile turfer Sakura Patrick, and Grade 1 turf winner Joyeux Danseurdams sire is the broodmare sire of six debut winners in 2007trainer is 17-208 (8%, $0.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (2-55, 4%, $0.40 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has seven debut winners this year (two juveniles, six with Lasix, two with blinkers, two with Desormeaux aboard, three for this owner).

3. Shotten Heimer (Aldebaran Unending Love, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
Foaled May 3, 2005 in Kentucky$50,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to stakes-placed Quiet Trail (21-4-3-5, $145,500, 0-3 at two, all wins in dirt routes), stakes-placed Timely Change (30-6-4-6, $86,544, unraced at two, 4-16 in dirt sprints), stakes-placed sprinter Exert (28-5-5-5, $79,745, 0-3 at two, 5-22 in dirt sprints), multiple stakes-placed sprinter Mon T. Hauls (43-6-9-13, $20,537. unraced at two, 6-40 in dirt sprints), and stakes-placed turfer Amoramente (10-1-1-2, $37,004, 0-2 at two, all races on grass)first-crop sire was multiple Grade 1 winner (25-8-12-3, $1,739,186, 1-1 at two on turf in England, 5-11 in dirt sprints)sire is 4-9 (44%) with juvenile runnersdam was unraceddam has 10 foals of racing age, 10 runners, seven winners, seven juvenile runners, two juvenile winnersdam a half-sister to Grade 1-placed turfer Midnight Cousins (12-3-0-3, $123,552, 0-1 at two, all wins on grass), and stakes-winner Fappiano Road (21-4-1-2, $85,870, unraced at two, 2-9 in dirt sprints)dam a full sister to multiple stakes-winning router Rampart Road (29-5-3-4, $316,363, unraced at two, all wins routing)trainer is 0-32 over the last five years with second-time juveniles (0-1 with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

4. Bold Trust (Trust N Luck Jive Talker, by Time for a Change)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled April 10, 2005 in Floridafirst-crop sire was Grade 1 route winner (12-5-3-1, $727,484, 4-8 at two, 2-6 in dirt sprints)sire is 3-21 (14%) with juvenile runnersdam was multiple stakes-winning sprinter (9-4-2-0, $102,780, 3-3 at two, 4-8 in dirt sprints, cost $10,000 as a yearling, and $47,000 as a juvenile)dam has three foals of racing age, three starters, two winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winnerssecond dam is Grade 3 winner Notches Trace (38-8-7-9, $360,562, unraced at two, 5-21 in dirt sprints)trainer is 104-422 (25%, $1.55 ROI) over the last five years with juveniles returning from a 31-60 day layoff (5-15, 33%, $1.50 with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoff at Saratoga).

5. Sargent Seattle (Vindication Sweet Nanette, by You and I)
Trainer: Stanley Hough
Foaled May 8, 2005 in Kentucky$475,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950), 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting)sire is 3-11 (27%) with juvenile firstersdam was a multiple stakes-winner (13-7-2-0, $392,845, 2-2 at two, 6-12 in dirt sprints, sold for $57,000 as a yearling, and for $115,000 as a juvenile)dam has two foals of racing age, one runner, no winners, one juvenile runnersecond dam is stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Sweet Remedy (26-4-4-2, $68,781, 1-8 at two, 3-21 in dirt sprints)trainer is 13-77 (17%, $1.28 ROI) over the last five years with juvenile firsters (2-20, 10%, $1.27 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has one debut winner this year (juvenile at Keeneland with Lasix and Javier Castellano aboard)June 29 workout matches up with barns 3-year-old Holiday Trip (48 Beyer on dirt, 83 on turf).

6. Forest Prince (Mineshaft Forest Heiress, by Forest Wildcat)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled January 28, 2005 in Kentuckyfirst-crop sire was multiple Grade 1 route winner (18-10-3-1, $2,283,402, unraced at two, all races were routes)sire is 0-3 with juvenile debut runnersdam was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner at two (17-8-3-1, $419,201, 4-5 at two, won debut, all races sprinting)this is dams first foaldam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Forest Heir (20-5-1-3, $166,522, 2-3 at two, all races sprinting), and Grade 1 sprint winner Wildcat Heir (12-6-4-0, $424,460, 1-2 at two, won debut, all races sprinting)trainer is 89-386 (23%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (22-98, 22%, $1.54 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has 15 debut winners in 2007 (10 juveniles, all with Lasix, eight with John Velazquez, one for this owner).

7. Ecton (Ecton Park Dolly by Golly, by Not For Love)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Foaled February 1, 2005 in Kentucky$32,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005), $25,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)sire was a Grade 1 route winner (23-6-4-6, $1,503,825, 1-2 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints)sire is 26-210 (12%) with juvenile runnersdam was unraced (sold for $4,500 as short yearling)dam has two foals of racing age, two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winnerssecond dam was multiple stakes-placed sprinter Rollicking Dolly (26-6-5-3, $102,710, 0-1 at two, 6-25 in dirt sprints)trainer is 5-52 (10%, $0.57 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (1-2, 50%, $6.40 ROI with all juveniles at Saratoga).

8. Immortal Eyes (Greatness Private Eyes, by Private Terms)
Trainer: Richard Violette Jr.
Foaled January 27, 2005 in Florida$18,000 short yearling (OBS January 2006), $80,000 yearling (OBS August 2006), $220,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007), out (OBS March 2007)first-crop sire was a winner (10-2-1-2, $79,590)sire is 1-10 (10%) with juvenile runnersdam was a winner (7-4-1-0, $36,384, 0-1 at two, all races sprinting, sold for $100,000 as a yearling)dam has two foals of racing age, two starters, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winnerdam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Karen Sweet (in Italy), and multiple stakes-placed juvenile Ms. Glacken (13-2-4-2, $60,103, 2-5 at two, all races sprinting)trainer is 22-85 (26%, $2.70 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (2-13, 15%, $5.50 ROI with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

9. In Orbit (Sky Mesa Ascend, by Risen Star)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Foaled May 6, 2005 in Kentucky$125,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006), $330,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton August 2006), out (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to Grade 1 turf winner Colstar (18-11-2-1, $1,053,056, 0-1 at two, all races on grass)first-crop sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)sire is 2-13 (15%) with juvenile runnersdam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, unraced at two, lone race a dirt sprint, cost $40,000 as juvenile)dam has four foals of racing age, three runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winnersdam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Alyten (53-5-11-7, $274,884, unraced at two, 0-14 in dirt sprints), Group 2 turf winner Montjoy (1-5 at two on turf in Europe), and stakes-winner Instinct (20-4-8-2, $205,255, 0-1 at two, 0-2 in dirt sprints)trainer is 18-173 (10%, $0.82 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (4-38, 11%, $0.77 ROI with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

10. Hi Chris (Mr. Greeley Our Friend Terry, by Coxs Ridge)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
Foaled May 8, 2005 in Kentucky$200,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)half-brother to Grade 3 turf winner White Cat (11-3-2-0, $157,778, 2-7 at two, 1-4 in dirt sprints)sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (16-5-6-0, $474,452, 2-6 at two, 4-11 in dirt sprints)sire is 27-250 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (sire has five debut winners this year, one a juvenile)dam was unraced (sold for $80,000 as a yearling)dam has six foals of racing age, five runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winnerdam a full-sister to stakes-winner Feather Ridge (11-4-1-1, $188,150, 1-1 at two, no dirt sprints)dams sire is the broodmare sire of six debut winners this yeartrainer is 21-185 (11%, $1.55 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (12-72, 17%, $2.38 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has two older debut winners this year (both at Gulfstream with Lasix on).

11. Northern Pick (Yankee Gentleman Bics Pick, by Deputy Commander)
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Foaled February 2, 2005 in Kentucky$47,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), $85,000 RNA (OBS March 2007)first-crop sire was a stakes-winner (10-4-1-0, $202,547, unraced at two, 3-7 in dirt sprints)sire is 1-8 with juvenile debut runnersdam was unplaced (3-0-0-0, $817, all races sprinting at two)this is dams first foaldam a half-sister to foreign stakes-winner Rubico, and Grade 1-placed Maris Sheba (14-3-2-4, $131,431, 0-3 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints)trainer is 11-83 (13%, $1.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (3-12, 25%, $1.53 ROI at Saratoga)trainer has two older debut winners this year (both at Gulfstream with Lasix on)worked two furlongs in 23.20, and two furlongs in 23 flat before the March 2007 saleJune 19 workout matches up with barns 4-year-old Scorpius (94 Beyer top)July 10 workout matches up with barns 3-year-old Gabriels Hill (47 Beyer on dirt, 83 on turf).

Analysis:
IMMORTAL EYES was rushed from the far outside post to press stablemate Fed Watcher (earned 98 Beyer for debut win on June 30), and understandably weakened through a final eighth in 11.93. He sold for 44 times the stud fee of his sire, and has the tactical speed to be among the early leaders. He should be right there turning for home, and a repeat of his debut Beyer would make him very tough in this spot. Trainer Richie Violette has done an excellent job with Saratoga juveniles, and he and Garrett Gomez teamed up for Wynsome Wesleys win at the Spa last year (second start of career).
BOLD TRUST has high early speed, and it wouldnt be a surprise if hes in front going into the turn. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins with a high percentage of his juvenile runners, but Bold Trust hasnt shown a great deal of stamina throughout his short career, and may be pressed early by SHOTTEN HEIMER, ECTON, and Immortal Eyes. The runner that ran by Bold Trust in the stretch at Churchill last time out returned to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor (77 Beyer). Shotten Heimer outran his odds at Churchill, and he showed good early speed that day. He has a quality pedigree, but may be under the gun from his inside post. ECTON just missed against maiden claimers at Churchill, and the winner of that race came back to finish second in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile (81 Beyer). He may face more pace pressure today than he saw in his career debut, however.
DOCTOR CAL is by a top win-early sire, but there is a lot of turf blood in his pedigree, and he may want to go a bit longer than 5.5 furlongs. FOREST PRINCE goes out for the always-dangerous Pletcher-Velazquez combination, and there is plenty of speed on the bottom of his pedigree. It will be interesting to see if this son of Mineshaft wants more ground.

Selections:
1. Immortal Eyes
2. Bold Trust
3. Shotten Heimer

The play: Immortal Eyes to win at 2-1 odds or more

Race 9
6 Furlongs
Schuylerville (Grade 3)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $100,000.

Analysis:
SUBTLE ALY was the easiest of winners in her career debut, and she was purchased privately since that start. Shell face a tougher pace setup in this matchup, but figures to be in the thick of things when they swing into the stretch, and its great to see a money rider like Prado take the mount. ACCORDING TO PLAN may be the quickest from the gate, and she was also very impressive in her career debut. The normally-conservative Barclay Tagg doesnt usually run his early juveniles in graded stakes so he certainly thinks he has a big shot here. I PROMISE earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure beating up on New York-breds, but may have to run-and-gun from the inside post position.
DREABONS LEGACY has experience racing from off-the-pace, and that should come in very handy with all the speeds in this race. She was no match for Rated Fiesty in the Debutante, and that one is arguably the top juvenile filly in the country right now. NEW YORK CITY GIRL and LADY CHACE beat up on weaker fields at Monmouth, but both did it the right way, and Pletcher babies should always be taken very seriously.

Selections:
1. Subtle Aly
2. According to Plan
3. I Promise

The play: Subtle Aly to win at 5-2 odds or more