With Songbird out, Kentucky Oaks now a wide-open race

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With the stunning Sunday announcement that Songbird will not run in the Kentucky Oaks, the May 6 filly classic at Churchill Downs now takes on a dramatically different look.

Songbird was the 7-10 favorite in the Oaks futures pool offered last month by Churchill, and she figured to be an even heavier favorite assuming she made it to the starting gate unscathed. Her defection because of a lingering fever not only makes the $1 million Oaks far more competitive but also virtually assures a full gate of 14 3-year-old fillies – which most likely would not have been the case if Songbird was in there to scare them off.

“We’re thinking far more seriously about running now than we would have if Songbird hadn’t come out,” said Neil Howard, the trainer of Dream Dance, typifying the attitude that some trainers are adopting.

The new leader atop the point standings that govern eligibility for the Oaks field is Terra Promessa, one of three fillies likely to start for trainer Steve Asmussen. Terra Promessa has 150 points, while Royal Obsession (45) and Taxable (40) also are safely in. Asmussen said three of his other fillies, Nickname, Adore, and Stageplay, will not be entered.

As of Monday, Carina Mia was the 14th filly on the points list, followed by “bubble” horses Marquee Miss, Flora Dora, and Northwest Tale. As with the Kentucky Derby, an also-eligibles list with as many as four horses will be used if needed. Oaks entries will be taken and the race drawn May 3.

As for Oaks favoritism, Terra Promessa, the winner of the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park in her last start, is one of a handful of logical candidates, along with Weep No More and Rachel’s Valentina, the one-two finishers in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland; Lewis Bay, the winner of the Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct for Chad Brown; and Land Over Sea, who won the Fair Grounds Oaks after repeatedly finishing second to Songbird.

As for the Oaks future wager held March 11-13, the $32,648 bet to win on Songbird (from a total win pool of $71,079) is now lost, along with roughly half of the exacta pool, which totaled $32,922.

The remaining Oaks prospects from the future wager are Rachel’s Valentina (13-1), Carina Mia (15-1), Terra Promessa (26-1), Lewis Bay (34-1), Land Over Sea (41-1), Marquee Miss (67-1), Gomo (72-1), Venus Valentine (82-1), Weep No More (85-1), and Dream Dance (128-1).

The 5-1 second favorite in the Oaks futures was Cathyrn Sophia, whose connections announced their intention to run her in the Grade 2 Eight Belles, a seven-furlong race on the Oaks undercard, after she finished third in the Ashland.

Oaks points standings
1. Terra Promessa, 150
2. Lewis Bay, 130
3. Land Over Sea, 128
4. Weep No More, 100
5. Go Maggie Go, 100
6. Venus Valentine, 50
7. Mokat, 50
8. Rachel’s Valentina, 48
9. Royal Obsession, 45
10. Dream Dance, 44
11. Taxable, 40
12. Paola Queen, 40
13. Gomo, 20
14. Carina Mia, 20
15. Marquee Miss, 20
16. Flora Dora, 16
17. Northwest Tale, 10