Solid favorite, longshot with a chance spice up Friday card

ARCADIA, Calif. – Among the challenges that horseplayers face is squeezing value from favorites in small fields, and surviving inevitable losing streaks from backing longshots in big fields.

Both scenarios occur Friday at Santa Anita – stretch-running favorite Mongolian Humor will be tough to beat in race 3, Dreams of Valor aims for front-running upset in race 7. Gambling is the focus of the nuts-and-bolts program.

Trainer Vladimir Cerin was not thinking about allowance races last summer when he claimed Mongolian Humor for $20,000.

“I thought if we could claim her for 20 and she could win for 16, we’re out,” he said.

She did better than that.

Mongolian Humor won a Del Mar entry-level allowance first start off the claim to earn $38,400. Her owners were out in just one race. Between fifth-place finishes in graded stakes was a runner-up finish in a second-level allowance at Keeneland.

Friday at Santa Anita, conditions are perfect for Mongolian Humor in a $25,000 claiming starter allowance that includes three front-runners – Love a Honeybadger, Square Peggy, and Uno Trouble Maker. The versatile Eternal Endeavor and Nomizar also are entered.

In addition to an advantageous pace scenario, Mongolian Humor worked super in company last Saturday.

“She’s good right now, she’s happy,” Cerin said.

Mongolian Humor is reunited with Abel Cedillo, who rode her to both wins last summer. As for wagering strategy in the six-runner field, a pace-meltdown exacta might be the right play – Mongolian Humor over closers Eternal Endeavor and Nomizar.

Race 7 is $50,000 claiming turf mile in which Murad Khan and Winning Element are likely favorites for obvious reasons. Both are in peak form, proven at the class level and footing, with versatile running styles and appropriate speed figures. No knock on either.

But horseplayers willing to take a shot at a price will consider Dreams of Valour, whose sporadic past performances include a history of surprises. Although the gelding has won only 3 of 26, his payoffs were $35, $34.80, and $36.40. Edwin Maldonado rode Dreams of Valor in each of those front-running upsets and is back aboard Friday.

Dreams of Valor, trained by Craig Dollase, is quick enough to set the pace Friday, while he tries to replicate the three highest-paying turf mile winners this meet. Flying to the Line ($52), Lincoln City ($33.60), and Too Much Heaven ($22.40) all led gate to wire.

Dreams of Valor, if he can hold off Murad Kahn and Winning Element, could spring an upset.