Soggy conditions could impact well-matched Transylvania Stakes

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The field of six entered for the Grade 3, $400,000 Transylvania Stakes for 3-year-olds on the turf Friday at Keeneland includes no throw-outs. The lineup boasts three undefeated colts and four stakes winners, with parity among them; five earned last-out Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 73 to 80.

They’ll all have a common opponent to deal with in the weather, which looks less than ideal for opening-weekend on the turf. Midweek rain left Lexington soggy, with subsequent cloudy conditions not boding well for a drying course. The early forecast for Friday also called for showers.

“That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?,” said trainer Graham Motion, who will send out unbeaten Central Park Stakes winner Sy Dog.

Two entrants are stakes-placed on turf courses officially rated less than firm – and, moreover, both of those have won on dirt, in the event this race is rained off the turf. They are the Mark Casse-trained stablemates Coinage and Credibility.

Coinage, by Tapit out of versatile Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold, was a 7 3/4-length maiden winner sprinting on dirt, then was third in the Rick Violette Stakes against fellow New York-breds. He moved to turf and stretched out to win the Grade 3 With Anticipation, was third in the Nownownow on good turf at Monmouth after stumbling at the start, and finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar.

Coinage returned to action in the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy in February at Gulfstream Park, dueling to set a pressured pace and then finishing third to Grand Sonata. Tighter for his next outing, he won the Palm Beach on March 5 at Gulfstream.

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Credibility was third behind Tiz the Bomb in the Grade 2 Bourbon last October on good turf at Keeneland. This January, he won an off-the-turf allowance event, but was sixth in the Palm Beach.

Coinage looks like the lone committed speed in the short field, but laying right off him is likely to be Grand Sonata. Fifth to Sy Dog in the Central Park after being bumped at the start, Grand Sonata came back to win the Dania Beach and Kitten’s Joy, both by narrow margins, earning a 79 Beyer in the Kitten’s Joy. The colt has worked five consecutive bullets at Palm Beach Downs for Todd Pletcher.

Sy Dog was a four-length debut winner in October at Belmont Park with a 79 Beyer and then rallied six wide at the quarter pole to get up by a nose in the Central Park at Aqueduct, on a course Motion noted “is not firm-firm at that time of year.” He earned an 80 Beyer, matching Coinage’s Palm Beach effort as the top last-out figure in this field, but gives a recency edge to his opponents.

“We made the decision not to send him to Florida, just to freshen him up a bit,” Motion said. “He never left the barn . . . This has always been our goal. I just hope he’s tight enough.”

Chad Brown has a pair of lightly raced entrants, led by Verbal, winner of both his outings last year, including the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille in November at Del Mar. Napoleonic War was a dead-heat debut winner in January at Tampa.

Like Sy Dog, Verbal would benefit from some pace to rally into.