On soft ground, Horizon Dore rises up in Champion Stakes

Horizon Dore, a French 3-year-old who never has raced at the Group 1 level, on Thursday was the antepost favorite for Saturday’s Group 1, $1.2 million Champion Stakes at Ascot.

Bettors are banking on course conditions shaping the outcome of Champions Day, a seemingly solid wager. The Ascot course could absorb three or more inches of rain before Saturday’s races, and turf this late in the year holds moisture. Ascot officials could move the 1 1/4-mile Champion, the 1 1/2-mile Fillies and Mares, and the two-mile Long Distance Cup from the Flat Course to the inner track, which is used for jump races.

Had the Champion been run last weekend, Mostahdaf would have been favored. Trained by John and Thady Gosden, Mostahdaf has this year at age 5 fulfilled previous flashes of high potential, winning the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes and the Group 1 International in his last two starts. Ten furlongs is Mostahdaf’s trip, but the horse wants nothing worse than mildly soft going and would prefer things firm. His odds had drifted to 7-1 on Thursday, owing to doubts that Mostahdaf actually will make the gate. John Gosden said on a podcast Thursday morning that he would walk the Ascot course Saturday morning before deciding whether Mostahdaf runs. The betting markets are saying he’s not, and if Mostahdaf misses Saturday’s race, he’s expected for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

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As for Horizon Dore, he won two French provincial races last year at age 2 and has improved in all six of his starts this year. He lost twice early this year to the best horse he’s run against, Big Rock, but those contests came at nine furlongs and Horizon Dore is a markedly better horse in October than he was in May.

Bay Bridge won the 2022 Champion over soft ground, and his sixth-place finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 1 came at a 1 1/2-mile trip farther than his best. Yet Bay Bridge sat at a cold 9-2 with British bookmakers late this week, same price as 3-year-old King of Steel. King of Steel finished second in the Derby behind Auguste Rodin while making his season’s debut and won the King Edward at Royal Ascot. Those two races were run at 1 1/2 miles over good-to-firm going, the circumstances that best suit King of Steel, a massive colt who still could show up at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup. Frankie Dettori has picked up the mount for trainer Roger Varian and Amo Racing.

Fillies and Mares

With 14 entrants and a 7-2 early favorite, the Champions Fillies and Mares over 1 1/2 miles looks like Saturday’s most competitive Group 1 race.

Free Wind, from the Gosden barn, was only 13th three weekends ago in the Arc but was the tepid antepost favorite Thursday to win her first Group 1 on Saturday. Dettori rides Free Wind, but while the mare has top-class connections, she might also prefer racing on top of the ground. Her best showing this season was a head loss to Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf-bound Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks, run over a good-to-firm course at York.

Jackie Oh, Warm Heart’s Aidan O’Brien-trained stablemate, earned her top rating Oct. 1 finishing second by a neck to Blue Rose Cen in the Prix de l’Opera over a firm, fast-playing Longchamp course, but the 3-year-old filly also has won over heavy and soft going.

Time Lock, a Juddmonte Farms homebred, is the last big-race runner for Roger Charlton, who co-trains the filly with his son Harry. Charlton retires at the end of the 2023 flat racing season, giving full control of the stable to his son.

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