Soft ground could favor some Europeans – and hurt others

It’s remarkable, really, how well the European shippers handle traveling to an American racetrack for the Breeders’ Cup. Things are just so much different for them here. At home they do not live at the track, only travelling there and back the day they race. Training takes place at a relaxed rhythm, often out in fields, through forest paths, over hill and dale – not out on a crowded dirt oval filled with strange horses.

Most of the Europeans, who began arriving Oct. 26 at Churchill, seem unfazed. Of the 23 racing Saturday, only a handful did anything at all during training hours the first part of this week. Now it’s time to consider how they will fare in their actual races. Here’s a look at them, horse by horse, race by race.

TURF SPRINT

LOST TREASURE is a 3-year-old with some ability and a lot of durability – this will be his fifth start in five weeks. His form is marginally contending for this race. Trainer Aidan O’Brien said he idles when he hits the front and will be ridden from the back to make one run. He also said Lost Treasure wants fast ground – he’s not getting that.

HAVANA GREY won the Flying Five Stakes at The Curragh, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race that guaranteed him a spot in this field. The Flying Five recently was upgraded to a Group 1 and some form analysts overseas didn’t think it merited such a designation. Short sprints overseas are nearly always down a straight course, so the turn will be new for him, but he has the form to contend and won’t mind wet turf.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

WILD ILLUSION went a little mad out on the turf course during training Wednesday, tossing her rider and acting a fool for several minutes before settling down. That’s not a major concern – probably. She was a Group 1 winner last year at 2, was favored to win the Epsom Oaks, and has improved the second part of the season, coming into this off the two best races of her life. She led winning the Group 1 Nassau but settled behind horses last out winning the Grade 1 Prix de l’Opera. She is versatile in many ways and stands an excellent chance.

PRINCESS YAIZA is a cut and a half below what’s needed here and doesn’t show wet-turf form that could move her up into a contending range.

MAGIC WAND has a lot to recommend her – but there’s a “but.” She thumped Wild Illusion at Ascot in June, then ran her worst race of the year next out in the Irish Oaks. In the Yorkshire Oaks, won by the wonderful Sea of Class, she was surprisingly taken out of typical tactics to be sent to the lead, fading to fifth in what might have been a “purpose” race – the purpose being to set her up for better things in the fall. Magic Wand fell a head short of the high-class filly Kitesurf in the Prix Vermeille on Arc Preview Day at Longchamp, then ran well in the Prix de l’Opera but still was soundly defeated by Wild Illusion. Here’s the “but” – she wants firm turf.

ATHENA showed up at Arlington for the Beverly D. looking a little withered – and ran like that. She only placed as high as fourth in the Irish Champion by sticking close to a slow pace, and didn’t show spark in the Opera.

EZIYRA is a very, very good filly who wouldn’t mind yielding or soft turf. She has given hints – such as in the Yorkshire Oaks, where she loomed along the inside before flattening slightly late – that 1 1/2 miles, or 12 furlongs, against top company is pushing her ideal distance. Well, this is 11 furlongs. The bad news: She’s drawn in post 14, and anything outside post 8, according to long-term stats, is a disadvantage at this Churchill turf distance. Still, one should never let post completely deter play on a horse that will be a price.

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MILE

ONE MASTER came out of obscurity to win the prestigious Prix de la Foret at 47-1. A good trip outside of a traffic jam helped her. Trainer William Haggas still isn’t sure she really wants a mile. He is sure she’ll relish soft turf. She could be considerably higher than her morning-line odds and isn’t out of the question.

HAPPILY is 0 for 6 this year and hadn’t run a race anywhere close to good enough to win this until she finished second by a head to Laurens on Oct. 6 in the Group 1 Sun Chariot. Multiple Group 1 winner Laurens had a bountiful 2018 campaign but the way she ran – or didn’t run – in the Queen Elizabeth II on Oct. 20 hinted she might already have been over the top in the Sun Chariot. We know Happily’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, is super dangerous, but we also know he’s not afraid to just take shots in big races.

POLYDREAM has been the buzz Mile horse in Europe for weeks and has been as short as 5-2 with some British bookmakers. It’s a little hard to understand, unless bettors are just conflating this 3-year-old filly with the great Goldikova, who won three BC Miles for the same trainer and owners. Polydream is a fine filly – fleet, athletic, nimble, fast – but trainer Freddie Head thinks seven furlongs is her ideal trip. She’s one to use but not lean on at a shortish price.

How much hype did EXPERT EYE generate a year ago? Well, he was the 1-2 favorite for the Group 1 Dewhurst, the biggest 2-year-old race in England. A year ago it was only hype – all hat and no cattle – but Expert Eye finally started living up to his early reputation this year. He ran two good races in August which led him to the Sept. 9 Prix du Moulin, a Group 1 one-mile race at Longchamp that often has produced competitive BC Mile runners. The winner, Recoletos, stalked and got a clean outside run while Expert Eye turned to the inside and didn’t have a clear path until it was too late. He came here a serious win threat, but, sadly, would prefer a firmer course than he’s likely to get.

I CAN FLY is like One Master in that she far overperformed her established form in her most recent start when beaten a neck by the exceptional Roaring Lion at 33-1 in the straight-course QE II, albeit on a soft course the Lion disliked. The good news is she’ll handle the wet going; the bad news is horses coming off peak efforts in the QE II have a poor record in the BC Mile.

LIGHTNING SPEAR is the rare 7-year-old entire horse still racing in high-level stakes. This is his last start. He’s difficult to figure and can throw clunkers, but on his day is good enough to make some noise. Jockey Oisin Murphy said this week that soft ground won’t quash his chances.

GUSTAV KLIMT has lost eight in a row since winning his 3-year-old bow, though he has not been running poorly. O’Brien said soft turf is fine for this colt and that he has been planning all along to stretch him back out to one mile. He was part of the trouble in the Foret. Poorly drawn but not without hope for a placing.

MUSTASHRY, marginally competitive based on his improving form, came here wanting firm turf he’s not getting and also must cope with a poor post.

TURF

With a chill rain falling Wednesday, TALISMANIC – and many humans! – were wishing he were back at sunny Del Mar. Talismanic does not appear to be the same horse now who won the 2017 Turf there and would prefer good or firm going.

ENABLE is one of the stars of the whole show, a great horse who has won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe twice, though she just lasted over onrushing Sea of Class this time around. Injured in the spring, she didn’t make her 2018 debut until Sept. 8. Now, there are two schools of thought regarding her chances of breaking The Curse of the Arc Winner – the fact no Arc winner ever has won the Turf. One says that with just two starts Enable is like no previous Arc winner to race in the Turf, that’s she’s fresh and ready to improve. The other says running hard enough to win the Arc after only one race in a year could leave Enable vulnerable to regression. Trainer John Gosden seemed a little uncertain Enable would handle a truly soft course. She will be heavily favored, regardless.

MAGICAL scored a breakout win Oct. 20 over soft ground in the British Champions Fillies and Mares. She wasn’t bad in the Arc, either, and is an improving type who has a sneaky chance for the trifecta at a fair price.

WALDGEIST was the best older horse in France this year, but as they say, in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. He was a little short of room at a key juncture in the Arc, but that race might have exposed him as slightly lacking at the very top of the game. And for what it’s worth, he has not looked especially robust training here this week.

HUNTING HORN has no chance on form and might be used as a pacemaker for Magical.

CLASSIC

Try finding a more electric performance than ROARING LION’s in the Champion Stakes, where he rallied like a mad horse into a walking pace. This 1 1/4-mile distance is his best and as for “turf pedigrees” this one lends itself to dirt hope more than most. He’s trained like he handled the Churchill surface this week, but the major concerns are how he copes with his first taste of dirt kickback in the race, and whether he can produce anything close to his best on a mere two-week rest.