Soft Dowager pace scenario favors Vergara

LEXINGTON, Ky. – It’s going to take a while for the field of nine in the Grade 3, $300,000 Dowager Stakes on Sunday at Keeneland to make their way around the three-turn configuration of the 1 1/2-mile turf marathon for fillies and mares. With a lack of speed in the field, it might take even a touch longer than expected – and that could be good news for the forwardly inclined Vergara, who could seize control.

Vergara has faced some of the top turf distaffers of the season, with names such as War Like Goddess, Whitebeam, and McKulick littering her past performances. She is coming to the Dowager off a win over her favorite course in the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon at 1 5/16 miles. She was eager, but stalked a very moderate pace – 1:15 for the opening six furlongs – until she took over. Vergara kicked clear by two lengths in the stretch and then held sway by three-quarters of a length over the rallying Transient, who also returns here.

It was the second stakes win over 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs for Vergara, who won the Dueling Grounds Oaks last year. That race came on a course rated good, and Vergara will likely have some give in the ground to work with at Keeneland. There was steady rain into Friday morning in Lexington, and the course will likely not completely dry out before Sunday’s card.

Vergara, trained by Graham Motion, doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but could find herself in that position under Joel Rosario and take advantage of the situation.

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The horse most likely to press her is Be Up, who is coming off a pace-pressing win at 1 1/4 miles at Belmont Park. She will be stepping up in class, however,as that race was at the allowance/optional-claiming level.

Motion has another dangerous contender in this race in Italian Group 2 winner Romagna Mia, who shouldn’t be too far off her stablemate, and who should be tighter while making her second start in the U.S. In her first outing, she raced evenly in third throughout the Grade 1 Beverly D. and was bested by Fev Rover and Gina Romantica. Both have since won Grade 1 races, with Gina Romantica coming back to win the First Lady at Keeneland, and Fev Rover taking the E.P. Taylor at Woodbine in her most recent start.

The Beverly D. was in August, when Romagna Mia had only been in Motion’s barn for a month.

Transient and some other logical contenders in the Dowager, such as Grade 3 Mint Julep winner Henrietta Topham, will attempt to overcome a disadvantage in running style, as they prefer to rally from off the pace and will likely not benefit from the absence of strong fractions.

Lovely Princess is less pace dependent than some. While she has come from farther back on occasion, she has also shown the ability to stalk and pounce. The filly won the Keertana Stakes at 1 1/2 miles earlier this year at Churchill Downs, and has won both her career starts on the Keeneland turf.

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