Soft course won't bother Paddington in Queen Elizabeth II

One reason the Breeders’ Cup has made Southern California the anchor of its late-season racing festival is weather. Warm air, fast dirt, firm turf – proper conditions for top-class racing. You won’t find Southern California weather in England during mid-October, and conditions for Champions Day, England’s late-season racing festival Saturday at Ascot, will be messy.

Rain already had turned the course soft Thursday and with Storm Babet bringing more intense rainfall Friday into Saturday, soft could become heavy.

Many horses won’t show their best under such circumstances; connections of some won’t bother to try. Inspiral wasn’t part of the final field drawn Thursday for the Group 1, $1.34 million Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and will start instead in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Brilliant 3-year-old filly Tahiyra travels from Ireland, but expect her to be taken out of the QE II if the forecast rain falls.

Cries of concern and consternation aren’t coming from the camp of Paddington, the QE II favorite who is bomb-proof when it comes to course conditions. Paddington has two Group 1 wins this year over good going but landed the Group 1 Sussex at Goodwood on a course somewhere between very soft and heavy. He started a remarkably productive 3-year-old season March 26 at Naas Racecourse in Ireland winning a handicap race on heavy ground.

Paddington matured noticeably between that March race and the Sussex on Aug. 2, adding muscle and heft to a frame not nearly fully formed in early spring. Paddington has grown up while staying busy. A surprise star, Paddington’s unexpected ascent led him to his Group 1 debut in the Irish 2000 Guineas on May 27. A tepid 3-1, Paddington won that race by two lengths and has not looked back.

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He easily won the St. James’s Palace at Royal Ascot before stretching out to 10 furlongs and beating older Group 1 rivals in the Eclipse Stakes. The Sussex followed, after which Paddington lost for the first time since his career debut, finishing third going 1 5/16 miles in the International at York. Trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, Paddington, a son of Siyouni, won’t be troubled by a laboring straight-course mile Saturday and will be odds-on if Tahiyra comes out.

There’s a chance Tahiyra could be redirected to the Breeders’ Cup Mile should she miss the QE II. Tahirya was beaten by Mawj over soft going in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, her only loss in a six-start career that includes four Group 1 successes, one at age 2 and three this season. Tahiyra won the Irish 1000 Guineas in May and the Coronation in June, got a breather, and returned with an electric performance in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.

Nashwa would have run in the 1 1/4-mile Champion Stakes over better going but winds up in the QE II now that the race favor milers with stamina to run farther. Nashwa has held her own over very soft turf and in her lone try this year at one mile won the Group 1 Falmouth by five lengths.

Chaldean, the 2000 Guineas winner over a soft course, hasn’t started since a subpar showing in the July 9 Prix Jean Prat, and Paddington beat him by nearly four lengths on good ground at Royal Ascot. French raiders Big Rock, a 3-year-old colt, and Facteur Cheval, a 4-year-old gelding, both show up on very soft or heavy and merit an upset chance.

Champions Sprint

Kinross is heavily favored to win his second straight Group 1 Champions Sprint. A 6-year-old gelding, Kinross is a European seven-furlong specialist on good or firm ground while he struggles to compete at the top level in six-furlong races under those conditions. But over a course wet and laboring Kinross suits the shorter trip, and on soft ground he won the six-furlong Champions Sprint by more than two lengths a year ago.

Kinross exits a troubled second in the Prix de la Foret and is on the same schedule as 2022, when he won the Foret and the Champions Sprint before finishing a fast-closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Kinross is expected for the BC Mile at Santa Anita before going on to Hong Kong for the International Races in December.

French shipper Vadream lacks Kinross’s level of accomplishment but shares his fondness for the expected conditions.

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