Society, Vahva each have their own advantages in Chicago showdown

Recency edge – Vahva. Pace advantage – Society.

Who ya got in the Chicago Stakes?

Vahva and Society, two of the faster older females in the land, comprise 40 percent of the Grade 3, $250,000 Chicago Stakes, the featured race Saturday at Churchill Downs.

All due respect to Royal Spa and Positano Sunset, but their absolute best-case scenario would be a creditable defeat in this seven-furlong dirt contest.

Chi Town Lady holds better cards, but not good enough to tackle the big two. Chi Town Lady earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, the best of her 12-start career, and was still beaten more than three lengths by Vahva last month at Churchill in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. And as a one-run closer, Chi Town Lady’s pace disadvantage is even greater than Vahva’s.

Society breaks from the rail under Tyler Gaffalione. She will be making her first start since a solid fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – solid, but not her very best race. The two before that, showed Society at her peak.

A year ago, the Churchill meet shifted to Ellis Park because of surface safety concerns. Society to some extent benefited from a golden rail in the Chicago, but even considering the circumstances, turned in a tremendous race winning by more than 10 lengths, her Beyer a career-best 105. One start later, going seven furlongs around two turns at Charles Town, she eclipsed that figure, earning a 106 romping in the $250,000 Pink Ribbon.

It’s not like those 4-year-old peaks came out of nowhere. At 3, Society won the Grade 1 Cotillion over a route of ground at Parx, but, with the exception of the Charles Town bull ring, her best races have come at or about seven furlongs. The three clunkers on Society’s page came in two-turn starts. And Society seems like a horse probably just now maturing at age 5.

“It will be her best year,” said trainer Steve Asmussen, praising owner Peter Bradley for bringing Society back for a 2024 campaign. “We’re very excited to get her started Saturday. She’s training extremely well, and we expect her to have a huge year.”

It’s hard to imagine Society doesn’t make a clear lead. It’s also difficult to picture Vahva not coming to challenge her in upper stretch.

So far this year, no female dirt sprinter age 3 or older has reached as high on the Beyer scale as Vahva, who hit 103 turning in a career-best winning the Derby City Distaff by two lengths. At this stage of her career, that’s probably just about who Vahva is rather than a one-race peak.

Vahva earned a 101 tallying in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland last fall. Minor rust after a winter break got her beat this April in the Madison at Keeneland, and while the Chicago merely serves as a stepping-stone to the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga, and, eventually, the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, Vahva should run to form.

“It might sound cliché, but she really is training the best she ever has out of her last race. She looks fantastic. She doesn’t show any signs she’d have a regression,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said.

Vahva, the mount of Irad Ortiz Jr., likes to stalk and pounce. She’ll be chasing Society, 4-5 on the track’s morning line.

“It’s a small field, and the favorite is the speed, so I can see the race being an uphill battle for Vahva,” said DeVaux.

But Vahva has sufficient pace to keep Society in range. Recency over speed in the Chicago.

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