Snow, cold temps likely to change complexion of Wednesday feature

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – If Churchill Downs looks a lot different Wednesday than it did Sunday on your simulcast signal, well, blame Mother Nature.

A few inches of snow fell early Monday, leading to the predictable Southern-state panic (i.e., schools closed) and covering Churchill and the rest of the region with a white blanket. At least elevator banter is less awkward.

Wednesday programs typically draw light crowds to Churchill, and given this early snowfall and the forecast of continued freezing temperatures, a record-low attendance wouldn’t be surprising. Regardless, there will be 10 races, including two $43,000 first-level allowances (races 6 and 9).

Unfortunately, both allowances are scheduled for the turf, and given this rare spate of wintry weather, racing on the grass appears unlikely here through the early part of the week. A transfer to the main track would substantially alter the original complexion of each race, with scratches to be announced Wednesday morning.

In race 6, for 2-year-old fillies, Martz is the lone main-track-only designee, and clearly becomes a major threat with a switch of surfaces. Flying Tipat, Carta de Oro, Tiger Ride, and No Fault of Mine all figure as solid contenders, assuming they stay in.

First post Wednesday is 12:40 p.m. Eastern, with the first allowance going at 3:08. Race 9, a five-furlong dash for fillies and mares, is set for 4:36.

KEY CONTENDERS

Flying Tipat (Last 3 Beyers: 61-62-58)

◗ It’s been a spectacular year for her sire, Tapit, and although Dale Romans has never tried her on dirt, there’s nothing to guarantee she wouldn’t run well over it.

◗ She draws favorably to the rail and has a seasoning edge over some of these others, particularly in routes.

Carta de Oro (Last 3 Beyers: 56-72-60)

◗ She, too, has a pedigree that doesn’t necessarily restrict her to grass racing and a favorable post, so she’ll have to be considered a player if Rusty Arnold chooses to leave her in.

◗ Her two-back victory on the Churchill grass came with whispers that she’s an excellent prospect.

Tiger Ride (Beyer: 67)

◗ Her visually impressive score in a Keeneland turf route in her lone race obviously was encouraging, but she came from far back and the pace may be less hectic here.

No Fault of Mine (Beyer: 86)

◗ The Chris Block barn continues to win more than its share when shipping into Kentucky from Chicago (see Suntracer, Nun the Less, Prado’s Sweet Ride), with this Lothenbach Stables homebred bringing in a gaudy Beyer Speed Figure from closing weekend at Arlington.

◗ That debut race came on Polytrack, so she will be racing on a new surface on Wednesday.

Martz (Last 2 Beyers: 68-67)

◗ Just like 19 days ago, when she came through as the favorite when the race was moved to the main track, this Scat Daddy filly figures to rate a better chance with a surface switch. She drew off handily in that last win before holding on by a length.