Skelly needs alert start against a sharp Closethegame Sugar

Closethegame Sugar and Skelly are coming off runner-up efforts in Grade 1 sprints at Del Mar and Saratoga, respectively. On Saturday, they meet at Churchill Downs for the $300,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at six furlongs.

Neither of these geldings has finished worse than second this year, and they are the one-two choices on the morning line. Closethegame Sugar, trained by Adam Rice, is a slim favorite over Skelly, trained by Steve Asmussen, by virtue of an earlier victory over that foe in the Aristides Stakes on June 1 at Churchill. Closethegame Sugar returned $38.92 to his backers that day, as it was his first victory on a conventional dirt track.

A stakes winner on turf in 2023, Closethegame Sugar was second in an allowance/optional-claiming race in May at Churchill, his first start off a layoff of well over seven months. In sharper form next time, Closethegame Sugar comfortably sat off a pressured pace set by Skelly in the Aristides, then surged by in the stretch for a length win. He proved it wasn’t a fluke when getting a similar trip to win the Kelly’s Landing four weeks later at Churchill.

Closethegame Sugar then dove into deeper waters for the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes on July 27 at Del Mar. Although he was unhurried away from the gate, he found himself a bit closer than usual, in a line of four across in the opening furlong before emerging to press the pace in second. He was no match for highly rated The Chosen Vron in the stretch, while saving second, an effort that left Rice ecstatic.

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To turn the tables on Closethegame Sugar, the front-running Skelly will have to begin breaking more sharply. The gelding won the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap and Lake Hamilton Stakes earlier this spring at Oaklawn Park, where he is unbeaten. In his lone start to date at Churchill, in the Aristides, Skelly broke poorly, made the lead, but had to work to put away challengers, and was run down in the final furlong.

In the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt July 27 at Saratoga, Skelly again had a bit of a tardy beginning, but recovered to gain command and held a clear lead into the stretch. He appeared to become leg-weary late and was caught by Nakatomi. Asmussen told New York Racing Association publicity afterward that the track, “as slow as it was, was not ideal for him.”

Skelly is well drawn in post 10 outside the other speed, but will need to avoid being caught wide. Here Mi Song, coming off a repeat win in the Jeff Hill Memorial at Ellis Park, pressed Skelly in the Aristides, and is a threat to be a thorn in his side again here. Disco Ball and My Buddy B are also pace possibilities. Closethegame Sugar would like to be sitting just behind the leaders, poised for another sweeping run on a track he likes.

Before sending out Skelly, Asmussen has a shot with Zeitlos, who is proven on this track, in the $300,000 Open Mind Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs.

Zeitlos has won three of five outings at Churchill Downs, including the Roxelana Stakes in April. She is looking to bounce back after a turf experiment that resulted in a fifth-place finish in the Grade 3 Caress Stakes at Saratoga.

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The vulnerability for Zeitlos is that she wants speed ahead of her to rally into – and, in a smaller field of six, it’s unclear who will commit. Backyard Money, Happy Am I, and Unsung Melody have used different strategies recently, but if they go back to tactics they used in earlier wins, they would be candidates to take the initiative up front.

Positano Sunset is getting class relief after three straight graded stakes outings against some of the best of the division. She was second in the Grade 3 Chicago Stakes at Churchill behind Grade 1 winner Vahva, then finished fourth in the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga to Society, Scylla, and Vahva.

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