Short-priced favorite no sure thing as turf bias shifts
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DEL MAR, Calif. – Turf sprints are fashionable this summer at Del Mar. Through Sunday, more than 17 percent of all races were at five furlongs on turf, the highest for a summer meet.
While the number of turf sprints is based on the horse population, handicapping subtleties change as the season unfolds. That includes a recent shift that could influence both turf sprints Thursday.
Speed dominated turf sprints the first month of the meet. Nearly half were won by the pacesetter, as only a small handful rallied from behind. Then it flipped. The past two weeks, pacesetters won just one-quarter of turf sprints, and nearly half were won by horses rallying from the middle or back.
The profile shift matters Thursday because speedster Jack Fish, runner-up last out, is favored in race 4, a turf sprint for Cal-bred maidens age 3 and up. However, Jack Fish is not likely to benefit from a bias. Furthermore, pesky stablemate Crime Lord will be breathing down his neck.
The second turf sprint Thursday is race 6, an entry-level allowance for fillies and mares in which Can’t Sleep offers an attractive wagering opportunity after a better-than-looked third last out in a similar turf sprint. Can’t Sleep is listed on the morning line at an appealing 4-1.
Jack Fish’s morning-line odds are 7-5, the shortest price on the card. His low odds are based on his runner-up finish last out in a similar Cal-bred maiden turf sprint. He set the pace, finished more than six lengths clear of third, and earned an 81 Beyer.
“He wins it nine out of 10 times,” trainer Peter Miller said.
Miller is not wrong, but the reason Jack Fish is not a standout Thursday is because stablemate Crime Lord drew in from the also-eligible list at 6-1. Crime Lord finished eighth in his debut, a race Miller said is a toss.
“When the dirt started to hit him, he retreated,” Miller said. “I think he will like the grass, and he’s worked good in blinkers.”
Crime Lord adds blinkers for his second start Thursday. Sired by Street Boss, he should move up switching surfaces.
The second program choice is Tom Mix, a well-bred firster trained by Phil D’Amato. Tom Mix, sired by Grazen, is a sibling to stakes winners Connie Swingle, S Y Sky, and Grazen Sky. Tom Mix has trained well, but five furlongs might be too short.
“He’s a big, giant horse,” D’Amato said. “I think he’s going to need a race and improve going long.”
In the race 6 allowance feature, Carla Gaines-trained Can’t Sleep is poised to upset after a better-than-looked third in a similar turf sprint.
“We drew the nine hole and lost ground,” said Gaines. “[The winner] drew the two hole and didn’t lose any ground.”
Can’t Sleep is making her third start following a layoff. It should be her best and she certainly will have pace to run at. Front-runners include Thermal, Cyprus Moon, and Miracle Ball. If she saves just a little ground from post 7, Can’t Sleep can spring the upset.
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