Shenandoah Downs: Analysis for Saturday 4/27

Shenandoah Downs will offer four $25,000 races for Virginia owned horses on Saturday. The half-mile track features tight cornering into the first turn which can undo a horse with a shaky gait and did as such to some of the horses we’ll mention below during last week’s prep races.

The four Finals for 4- and 5-year-olds make up the early and late double and we’ll take a look at each. Post time for the 12-race card is 1:05 PM (EDT).

Race 1: Alleghany Trot

The best horse in this race is clearly (1) Big Daddy D, but he made breaks at multiple points during his prep last Saturday as it seemed every time another horse came near him it set him off. It is also worth noting that he broke in this exact race last year. While I would consider him if an equipment change was announced, it is hard not to key (6) K J TODD after a 10-length romp against these last time out. We might find some value underneath with (5) Terrys Watching, who made two moves early in the mile and barely missed second to a fresher horse. Note that she won six of 12 starts here in 2023.

Race 2: Blue Ridge Mare Pace

Hopefully we’ll get a mild upset here in the second half of the double. (5) BRENDAS DELIGHT had to work a bit first-over last week to clear the lead and fell victim to (4) Hillbilyclassygirl, who had a perfect trip on her back. There is no denying that the former has proven to be a bit faster on paper, but perhaps that is just a matter of Brendas Delight not racing on bigger tracks. She’s a half-mile track regular and can use that to her advantage.

Early Double Play: 6-5

Race 11: Alleghany Mare Trot

It is difficult to look past (5) ELLEN’S WISH in this Final after her open-lengths win last weekend. She’s also the fastest mare in the race with a 1:59 4/5 win over the track while others haven’t come close to 2:01. Oh, and she has eight wins over the track the last three years while the rest of the field combined has six. (4) Joan Deer is an intriguing play on the bottom of the exacta ticket. He rolled into a break trying to corner into the stretch the first time but recovered nicely to catch the field and keep up through the wire. That she stayed flat in her previous two starts gives hope she can do it again.

Race 12: Blue Ridge Pace

(2) KJ HUNTER easily beat this field last weekend and also won the Blue Ridge in 2023. He is simply too fast for this group and something would have to go very wrong for him to taste defeat. Unfortunately there is no value in the exacta either as (1) KJ Unreal seems likely to get away no worse than third and finish off that wager at somewhere around a $5 mutuel.

Late Double Play: 5-2