Shakertown, Commonwealth have wide-open feel

LEXINGTON, Ky. – It’d be poetic justice if Chaos Theory were to win Saturday at Keeneland – because chaos is exactly what many handicappers will be thinking when they analyze the two graded stakes for older males on the Blue Grass Stakes undercard.

Chaos Theory is a longshot in the Grade 2 Shakertown (race 7), which directly follows the Grade 3 Commonwealth (race 6) as the first two legs in a pick-five wager ending with the Blue Grass (race 10). The $200,000 Shakertown drew a field of 13, and the $250,000 Commonwealth got 14, and by the unwieldy looks of things, chaos indeed could reign in either.

Shakertown (race 7)

Disco Partner will break from post 3 as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in this 5 1/2-furlong turf race, but he and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. might have to make their way through considerable traffic to prevail. Trained by noted turf conditioner Christophe Clement, the gray 7-year-old horse has been a fixture in the upper levels of the turf-sprint niche for several seasons now, amassing more than $1.38 million in earnings while finishing third or better in 22 of 28 starts.

Away since late November, Disco Partner shows seven workouts at Clement’s winter base, Payson Park, since early February. He’ll be fresh, so perhaps Ortiz will be able to maneuver him into a prime stalking position before the real running begins.

If not, well, throw this one wide-open.

An inordinate amount of early speed is signed on in this 23rd running of the Shakertown, with Latent Revenge and Bay Muzik the likeliest to be showing heels when the field hits the far turn. They’ll be given hot pursuit by a handful of others, most notably the uncoupled Peter Miller duo of Richard’s Boy and Conquest Tsunami, both of whom are proven veterans with a terrific turn of foot. Add to the mix the Florida shipper Imprimis – a last-out stakes winner going five furlongs in 54.64 seconds – and there seems little doubt the early pace will be scalding.

Assuming most or all of those speedsters are unable to soldier on, the table could be set for Disco Partner or some of the other closers. Among those looking to pounce will be the 2018 Shakertown winner, Bound for Nowhere, who makes his first start since last October following nine workouts at Turfway Park. Luis Saez will be aboard for owner-trainer Wesley Ward.

“He showed how good he was at sprinting on the grass last year,” said Ward. “I regrouped him after his last race, and he’s come back really sharp. Hopefully, the trip will set up and Luis will take advantage.”

Among the longer prices who could benefit from clean trips from off the pace are Chaos Theory and Angaston. They’ll start from posts 12 and 13 and need lifetime bests to threaten.

Aside from being part of the all-graded-stakes pick five (races 6-10, $300,000 guaranteed pool), the Shakertown starts off an all-graded-stakes pick four (races 7-10, $400,000 guaranteed pool).

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Commonwealth (race 6)

The program favorites in this seven-furlong race are Limousine Liberal (3-1) and Recruiting Ready (7-2), but both come with question marks that help make the 33rd Commonwealth arguably the deepest race of the day.

Limousine Liberal, a local hero trained by Ben Colebrook, is a horse of proven quality, but he’ll be returning from a layoff of five months and has been prone to tough trips at his home track.

“It seems like things always have to work out perfect for him to win a race like this,” said Colebrook. “But he’s had a couple of sharp works coming into this, and there’s plenty of speed in there to set things up for us.”

Recruiting Ready, with Saez riding for trainer Stan Hough, has regained peak form in recent months, winning the Gravesend at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint, but the 5-year-old horse may find this distance a bit beyond his scope; his three starts at seven furlongs or longer have resulted in defeat. Moreover, he’ll break from post 2 in the crowded field, which may force Saez’s hand earlier than he wants.

Another would-be contender breaking from the inside is Copper Town (post 1), who also comes with caveats. Brilliant here last fall in winning an allowance, he hasn’t duplicated that form in three subsequent starts, although a runner-up finish in the Feb. 23 Fred Hooper at Gulfstream was flattered when his victorious stablemate Prince Lucky wheeled back to easily win again.

So, if the favorites are vulnerable, who then?

The 2018 Commonwealth winner, Warrior’s Club, is back, proudly sporting the Churchill Downs Racing Club silks and a $741,504 bankroll. Uncontested and Majestic Dunhill, the 1-2 finishers in the Grade 3 General George at Laurel Park, both enter in fine form. Uno Mas Modelo has won 7 of his 9 starts in climbing the class ladder for trainer Anthony Quartarolo. But wait, that’s not all.

Bobby’s Wicked One has consistently posted Beyer Speed Figures in the high 90s in coming to prominence for trainer Al Stall Jr. Richiesinthehouse has been a terror this winter at Golden Gate Fields. Runaway Ghost won his two comeback starts in the far Southwest for trainer Todd Fincher and now steps up to the plate. And New York Central won his comeback try at Oaklawn Park in February.