Set Piece nice fit in River City, the last of three stakes

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – They’ve been talking about snow flurries over the weekend, so who knows what that means in regard to turf racing at Churchill Downs? The first graded turf race at Churchill since the Arlington Million in August is supposed to be run Sunday, but the weatherman may have the final say as to whether the Grade 3 River City will have to move to the main track.

On paper, and on turf, the River City looks like a terrific race. Set Piece, a terror on the old course replaced earlier this year by a $10 million Bermuda-hybrid, would merit top billing along with millionaire Pixelate if the race stays on the grass, but a move to the dirt would dramatically change the outlook.

In all, 14 older horses are entered in the 43rd River City, which, regardless of surface, will be run under the Churchill lights as the last of three straight $300,000 stakes and as the nightcap of a 10-race Sunday card that starts at 1 p.m. Eastern. Only as many as 12 can start, although that would seem a moot point if racing officials wind up merely trying to hold it together. Aside from intermittent rain Friday and Saturday, a cold front is settling into this region, making for less-than-ideal conditions to dry out a course that has seen its share of well-documented problems.

All other Sunday races, including the preceding six-furlong twin sprint stakes, the Dream Supreme (race 8) and Bet On Sunshine (race 9), will be run on the main track.

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Assuming the River City stays on turf, Set Piece could go favored as a textbook closer with a reliable kick. The Juddmonte Farms homebred has earned Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 97 to 101 in nine of his last 11 starts, an outstanding record further enhanced by how well he tends to run out of his own stall in the Brad Cox barn at Churchill.

“Obviously we’d like for this to stay on the grass because the horse is ready for a race like this,” said Cox. “If it’s not to be, we’ll live with it and move on.”

Set Piece, a British-bred 6-year-old with six stakes wins since moving to the U.S., was assigned post 11 with Florent Geroux named. Among the chief opposition on turf would be Pixelate (post 7, Vince Cheminaud), an earner of more than $1.18 million in 26 starts for owner-breeder Godolphin and trainer Mike Stidham, and In Love (post 5, Gerardo Corrales), winner of the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile a little more than a year ago.

If on dirt, the River City becomes a real guessing game, with maybe Hozier and Max K.O. becoming the top contenders in what likely would be a depleted lineup.

In earlier Sunday action:

Dream Supreme

Shifting fortunes among the elite filly-mare sprinters on this circuit have given the $300,000 Dream Supreme an interesting look. Bell’s the One has been retired and Sconsin has lost peak form, perhaps leaving Joyful Cadence (post 4, Reylu Gutierrez) as a deserving favorite among six fillies and mares.

Joyful Cadence, trained by John Ortiz, is one of four in here exiting the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America at Keeneland last month. She was a decent third behind the romping winner, Slammed, when followed home by Club Car (fifth), Sconsin (sixth), and Palm Cottage (eighth).

Bet On Sunshine

More than half of the 10-horse field in the $300,000 Bet On Sunshine seem to stand a good chance at victory. Bango (post 4, Tyler Gaffalione) is a perpetual danger at Churchill, having racked up eight local wins, while Miles Ahead (post 9, Martin Garcia) is entered off back-to-back 98 Beyers, ending with a narrow victory eight weekends ago here in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society.

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Sibelius (post 10, Junior Alvarado) probably lost the Phoenix at Keeneland with an uncharacteristically poor start but should come out running this time, while Phoenix runner-up Long Range Toddy (post 5, Paco Lopez) and the Ortiz duo of Top Gunner (post 2, Gutierrez) and Mucho (post 7, Luis Saez) all have fair selling points, too.

◗ Sunday is a big day for Bret Calhoun. Not only will the trainer of nearly 3,500 winners be represented in the seventh race by Run Classic, a last-out earner of a 105 Beyer, but also in the fourth race by Hidden Connection, the 2021 Pocahontas winner making her first start since the May 6 Kentucky Oaks.

The Calhoun runners are in the only allowances of the day. Race 4 is a $134,000 second-level sprint for 3-year-old fillies, and race 7 is a $141,000 third-level route that drew an excellent field of 11 older horses. All Churchill purses include bonuses restricted to registered Kentucky-breds.

◗ Riley Mott, the son of and former longtime assistant to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, won his first race since going out on his own when Unifying ($4.90) captured the sixth race here Thursday. The win came in just the third start for the 30-year-old Mott, who has been making preparations for a winter campaign at Oaklawn Park, where a five-month meet starts Dec. 9.

◗ After Sunday, Churchill goes dark for two days before another five-day week resumes Wednesday. The 19-day fall meet runs through Nov. 27.

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