Scioto: Analysis for Monday's $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 5

Post time on Monday is 6:30 P.M. for the 14-race Memorial Day card.

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Race 5: NW3600 in last 4

This shapes up as an interesting opening leg, with many potential contenders to consider. Despite post 8, the top selection will be (8) FOX VALLEY RIVIERA. The speedy 5-year-old gets meaningful changes in terms of trainer and driver and lands in a class where he can do some damage. (1) FOOL ME ONCE hails from a barn that won twice and sent out three second-place finishers on opening night, though unlike the others, this horse isn’t an out-of-town shipper. I wouldn’t take a short price but you have to respect the barn’s hot start. (6) PQ THREE moved into this barn and raced well back in March and the comeback qualifier was solid. (7) DON’T ASK LOGAN has the early speed to make the top and could go a long way if left alone.

Race 6: NW 4 races to be claimed for $17,500

There isn’t much to go by in this field as none of them qualified very well and most of them don’t love to win. For a top pick I’m trying (7) SKYWAY STELLA on the trainer change angle. Others on my ticket include (1) ELM GROVE MADDY, (2) I M MCCITED, (5) STAY GOLD AND (6) DLITEFULACQUISTION.

Race 7: NW 1 race lifetime

(3) MISSION VOYAGE only has one qualifier on his resume since last October, but it was a good effort where he was full of trot in the stretch. Son of Manofmanymissions may have matured quite a bit over the winter. (5) UCRYWHENIFLYBY and (10) TOASTED BY TWELVE both displayed some ability with 1:59 wins at Delaware in their 2-year-old campaigns and each finished up reasonably well in their qualifiers. That said, I’m tossing the former to keep the ticket affordable and because he seemed to have a seconditis issue last year. Feel free to use him if you want a deeper ticket.

Race 8: NW2000 in last 4

This is going to be a dicey top pick, but if (1) ELMO BLATCH can keep his act together, he’ll win this race. His qualifier was strong, but you got the feeling that if this horse is stressed, he’ll jump. (4) HAUL N DASH was awful back in March but qualified much better. Maybe this guy needed some time off?

Race 9: Starters in a $6,000 claimer or less last 4 starts

Lower-level claimers who aren’t in for a tag courtesy of this starter allowance event close out the sequence. (3) ALWAYS A FIJI was doing very well in a similar class a few months back when racing was last in session and his comeback qualifier was good enough to expect him to be ready. (9) BEECHWOOD WAYNE is another from the JD Perrin barn. On paper he looks to be in tough, but you can’t toss these horses right now.

The final ticket is no doubt a bit expensive, but this sequence has no clear standouts and a bunch of questionable fields.

.50 Ticket: 1,6,7,8 / 1,2,5,6,7 / 3,10 / 1,4 / 3,9 = $80