Saturday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Valyrian can control the pace on the drop in class

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:17 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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I have no major knocks against Gorelli (#7). He’s had more chances than some others in this race, but he’s getting some needed class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time since graduating from the maiden ranks. He’s the horse to beat, but he’s probably going to go off as the favorite in this race given his competitive speed figures and H. James Bond’s recent success on this circuit.

I’m using the likely favorite, but I want to bet VALYRIAN (#4) at a slightly better price.

This horse has been keeping even tougher company than Gorelli in his recent starts, and has actually run better than it seems in a few of those races. Last time, he was setting a fast pace that collapsed going seven furlongs, and earned a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure of 101, even while losing by 17 lengths. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He figures to appreciate this drop in class, and I think he has a real chance to lead this field wire-to-wire.

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7,8