Saturday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Aveenu Malcainu looks ready to step up in Champagne
Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 4:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
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There are many runners to consider in this wide-open Champagne. Honorable Treasure (#9) is probably the horse to beat given the strength of his maiden win relative to the rest of this field. He earned the highest speed figures (90 Beyer, 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure) in this field in that score, and the number was validated by runner-up Ezmosh, who improved while winning next time out. He must avoid getting caught up in what is predicted to be a fast pace by the Pace Projector, but I think he’s one whom you can reasonably trust.
Of the pair coming out of the Saratoga maiden race on Aug. 26, I prefer the maiden Good Magic (#6) to the winner – and morning-line favorite in this race – Hazit. The latter was on the rail for much of the way, setting a very slow pace, whereas Good Magic had to sit outside and stayed on well through the stretch. Good Magic is bred to stretch out in distance, and I think it’s a good sign that Chad Brown is placing him so aggressively.
Enticed (#4) also has a right to improve in his second start, but he really will need to do so given how slow his debut came back. However, Kiaran McLaughlin does have solid numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 8 (50 percent, $5.13 ROI) with 2-year-old debut winners coming back in graded stakes on dirt. Another runner who figures to be a decent price and worth inclusion somewhere is Kowboy Karma (#1), who may find this one-turn mile more to his liking after showing promise sprinting earlier in his career.
I'll use all of these, but my top pick is the New York-bred AVEENU MALCAINU (#8).
In a race where experience almost definitely will come into play, I want Aveenu Malcainu. He has been a professional sort right from the start, making eye-catching, wide runs to victory at Saratoga in both of his starts. It’s not as if the Saratoga main track was strongly favoring inside speed on the days that he ran, but it’s still somewhat atypical to see 2-year-olds handle themselves the way he did at the Spa. I know he wasn't facing quality fields in those races, but he ran competitive speed figures, and he doesn't figure to have any trouble stretching out to this one-turn mile. Furthermore, his versatile running style should enable Luis Saez to work out a favorable trip.
THE PLAY
Win: 8
Exacta Box: 6,8,9
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,10
Trifecta: 8 with 1,4,6,9 with 1,4,6,7,9,10,11