Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Winter's Ghost rounding back into top form

Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:10 p.m. (ET)

Tiberius Mercurius (#2) could vie for favoritism here on the basis of his narrow loss at the $12,500 level last month. He finished in a photo with Khafre that day, lunging at the winner right at the wire, and the field may have been slightly tougher than this one. His 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure arguably does make him the horse to beat, but he achieved that performance going 1 1/8 miles around two turns. Now he's being asked to cut back to a one-turn mile, and I'm a little concerned that he may get outrun in a race that doesn't appear to feature much early speed.

I much prefer main rival Winter's Ghost (#1), who may be finding the right spot as he makes his third start off a layoff. He returned from a four-month layoff in early May and flashed his typical early speed before fading in an unusually fast race for the level. He moved up in class against tougher last time but was curiously wrangled off the pace by Flavien Prat, who rarely takes speed away from horses when they break well. Winter's Ghost still ran on strongly late despite the unfamiliar trip, finishing like a horse who might have had more to offer. He figures to go back to aggressive tactics here under Ricardo Santana and should play out as the main speed from this inside post, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates. In my view, he is clearly the most likely winner.

The other primary horse I would consider is He's Got This (#7), who has been claimed back by the same owners who had him two starts ago, this time with Ilkay Kantarmaci instead of Jamie Ness. His form has tailed off over the winter, but he is dropping to the lowest level of his career. I could also throw in Active Duty (#8) if he's a fair price. He has generally met weaker company in conditioned claiming races, but he was game to win last time and can get a piece of this. I'll mostly use these two underneath my top pick.