Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Vahva should get right pace setup in Victory Ride
Belmont | Race 11 | Post Time 6:21 p.m. (ET) TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs
This Victory Ride attracted a pretty strong group of 3-year-old filly sprinters for a Grade 3 event. Likely favorite Maple Leaf Mel (#5) will put her undefeated record on the line as she steps up against the toughest field she’s ever faced. She comes in with the fastest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 111, earned when she dominated the Grade 3 Miss Preakness last time out, winning geared down at the end. However, that day she was able to control the pace up front and she may face some more early pressure this time.
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she could get an early challenge from Dazzling Blue (#2), who also comes into this race unbeaten. The caveat is that Dazzling Blue has shown a tendency to break a step slowly from the gate, which could compromise her ability to get in front of the favorite after a quarter mile.
Red Carpet Ready (#8) seems like a more consequential pace rival for Maple Leaf Mel. She switched to the outside of heavy favorite Munnys Gold in the Eight Belles last time at Churchill, and her rider Luis Saez used that tactical position to attack on the turn, ultimately winning the race by forging to the lead at the quarter pole. One would imagine that Saez and the connections will view this race similarly, looking to issue a challenge to Maple Leaf Mel on the far turn. Red Carpet Ready has proven that she possesses the talent to beat a field like this, but it won’t be easy.
If that scenario plays out, there is a distinct possibility that the race could come apart in the late stages. Vavha (#3) may not be the most naturally talented filly in this field, but she has the right running style to capitalize on a contested early pace. She gets the LP flag on the Pace Projector, indicating that she possesses the highest Late Pace Rating in the field. Yet it’s not as if she’s some deep closer who has to rally from far behind. She sat a good trip in mid-pack last time before pouncing on the leader in upper stretch. Her connections have tried her over a variety of distances, but she appears to be best in one-turn races. Her last couple of starts in Kentucky since turning back suggest she’s heading in the right direction, and she figures to be a fair price.