Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Turnback should help Tonal Impact’s late kick

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:06 p.m. (ET)

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There’s little doubt that Zandon (#2) is the horse to beat in this optional claimer as he returns from the layoff to launch his 4-year-old campaign. Yet there are some questions he has to answer. Chad Brown has a reputation for doing well off layoffs, but he is just 7 for 37 (19%, $0.75 ROI) with horses off 90- to 180-day layoffs in dirt allowance races over the past 5 years, in a sample primarily composed of short prices. This colt was one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, but he disappointed slightly towards the end of the year. His Cigar Mile performance over a wet track was arguably his worst effort of the season, and he’s likely to encounter a similar sloppy track here.

There are some alternatives to consider beyond this favorite. I’m not thrilled with the potential second choice High Connection (#3). This runner disappointed for the Bob Baffert stable, losing multiple races at short prices. He’s now been transferred to Todd Pletcher, but this feels like a trainer switch of desperation. The Pletcher barn has also been pretty cold at this meet.

I’m more interested in some bigger prices. Galt (#6) offers some appeal as he makes his second start off the layoff. This horse showed hints of talent last year, and did earn a victory over a muddy track in his 3-year-old finale. His return at Gulfstream was somewhat lackluster, but that race featured a slow pace that worked against him. He has a right to do better here.

My top pick is Tonal Impact (#8). Some may view him as being a cut below this field since he’s been competing at Aqueduct through the winter. However, he’s maintained strong form since being claimed by the Linda Rice barn. I just think his connections made a slight error in judgment by targeting longer races with him. He has a nice turn of foot in his arsenal, but that finishing speed tends to get muted when he’s asked to go 1 1/8 miles and beyond. We saw that clearly in his 1 3/8-mile attempt two back, when he hung badly through the stretch after making an early move. I love this turnback to one-mile and there appears to be enough speed signed on to set up his late kick. He does own the best TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in the field, even higher than that of Zandon.