Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Turnback in distance should suit Carbon

Belmont | Race 9 | Post Time 5:08 p.m. (ET)

TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs

This isn’t the strongest starter-allowance affair, so I expect Meraviglioso (#4) will take plenty of money as she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Richard Dutrow Jr. She’s run well against some tougher company in recent starts, earning a series of speed figures that simply make her the horse to beat. Furthermore, we have already seen two horses switching into the Dutrow barn improve at this meet, so it’s reasonable to project a step forward here.

Bustin Lulu (#5) could also take some money as she moves up in class off a maiden-claiming win. However, she was facing a much weaker field that day and was able to dominate that race on the front end through moderate fractions. This is a stiffer test.

Icy Reply (#8) ran well to be second at this level last time when she tried to stretch out to a mile. Shortening up should suit her and her form had been heading in the right direction prior to that. I just wonder if we’ve already seen the best she has to offer.

My top pick is CARBON (#1), who exits that same May 4 race. She’s another who probably didn’t want the one-mile distance and will appreciate the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs here. She was in good form last fall for Linda Rice before tailing off over the winter. Yet I thought she showed some subtle improvement first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. She seemed to lose focus on the far turn when dropping back, but she then finished up nicely once asked for her best in the lane. I expect her to run a more complete race this time with blinkers going on, and the price should be fair.