Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Three Zero a viable alternative to suspect favorites
Belmont | Race 2 | Post Time 1:31 p.m. (ET)
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This race looks ripe for an upset because the short prices aren’t very reliable. I won’t be surprised if Bold Journey (#8) goes favored even though he’s making his turf debut. This colt is clearly the most naturally talented runner in the field, but there’s no guarantee that he’s going to take to turf. He’s been campaigned as a dirt horse for most of his career, though it’s worth noting that he was entered for turf in that Oct. 1 race that got rained off the grass. The dam’s side pedigree really doesn’t say turf, though sire Hard Spun is a good grass influence. I won’t be surprised when he takes to it, but I don’t need him at a short price.
Main rival Ohtwoohthreefive (#9) looks more trustworthy at first glance, but it’s not as if he’s the most convincing win candidate either. He’s achieved a couple of stakes placings in his career, but he still went 0 for 10 last season despite making multiple starts at this allowance level. His loss at the Meadowlands two back was particularly disappointing, and now he returns for a new barn off the layoff. He owns the best turf form, but is another one who I found hard to trust at a short price.
Soulmate (#4) makes plenty of sense based on his turf speed figures from last year. However, he’s another that seemed to tail off late last season, and was unable to deliver in the fall even when dropped down to this level. He is catching a weaker field than that off the layoff, and has run well going 7 furlongs before. Furthermore, he’ll be a much more enticing price than the two aforementioned runners with a low-profile jockey named.
My top pick is Three Zero (#5). He looks slower than some of his main rivals on speed figures, but he has a few things going for him. He’s a confirmed turf horse, which is more than some others in here can claim, and he’s a 3-year-old who has been improving lately whereas others appear to be on the downswing. He competed in a series of 5-furlong events at Gulfstream over the winter, meeting some decent rivals, and that distance may be a little short for him. I thought he ran two of his best races going 6 furlongs last October as a 2-year-old, which gives me some hope for him stretching out to 7 furlongs here. I like that he’s learned to settle better under Javier Castellano, who retains the mount as the horse returns to New York.