Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Surfside Moon deserves another chance on dirt in Withers
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:46 p.m. (ET)
The horse to beat and catch in this Withers appears to be Captain Cook (#6), who broke his maiden very impressively over a sloppy track last time at Aqueduct. He was making his first start for Rick Dutrow following an auction purchase for $410k after his debut. He clearly improved with that experience under his belt, showing improved tactical speed before drawing off to a convincing victory. He probably doesn’t have to improve much at all on his 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be in an advantageous forward early position. I actually think he should handle the added distance despite a less than stellar pedigree for it, but I’m reluctant to take a short price on a horse trying something new.
Mo Quality (#5) looks like his main rival based on form, as he’s coming out of a solid runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn behind Coal Battle. He was rated just off a slow pace through the early stages of that race, traveling wider than the eventual winner every step of the way. Yet he had his chance in upper stretch and just lacked a kick while hanging on his left lead. I had been impressed with this maiden victory, but that was a one-turn race, and I do suspect he’ll be better going shorter.
Omaha Omaha (#7) is one who should have no issues with the distance given his ample prior experience around two turns and his stamina-oriented female family. His dam is a full-sister to Big Blue Kitten, who wanted to run 1 1/2 miles, so this 9-furlong distance should be right up his alley. He’s highly pace dependent, since he just lacks any early speed, but he does figure to be staying on at the end.
My top pick is Surfside Moon (#2), who will obviously have to get faster if he’s to upset this field. I just think we haven’t yet seen the best that this horse has to offer. He really seemed to improve with added distance last August, staying on well for the victory despite altering course in the stretch. That was a turf race, but his pedigree is quite versatile with regard to surface, especially when you dig into the female family. He’s only gotten one chance to route on dirt in the Laurel Futurity, and the trip just didn’t work out that day. He was off a bit slowly and advanced inside, but then got steadied and shuffled back on the far turn before finding more traffic in upper stretch. He actually stayed on decently despite that uncomfortable journey. Now he gets back on dirt while not facing the toughest field for a Derby prep. He also gets a rider upgrade to Sahin Civaci while going out for a trainer who is certainly capable of winning with prices on this circuit.