Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Surface to Air capable of better second off the layoff and first off the claim

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:06 p.m. (ET)

I’m not thrilled with the horses who figures to take money in this starter allowance. Debate (#6) looks like the favorite after placing third twice at this level in his last couple of starts. He did seem to improve with the stretch-out to a one-turn mile. However, I’m not convinced that this horse necessarily wants to go 9 furlongs in this spot. He’s only tried two turns once before, and both prior victories have come sprinting. Linda Rice has had success with stretch-outs like this, but I didn’t want to take him at short price. I’m actually more interested in the other Linda Rice runner Strapped (#3). That horse does have to overcome a layoff, but he ran well closing over a speed-favoring surface when last seen in October.

Night Effect (#5) is another who could attract support after missing by a nose in a similar spot last time. Yet he had things go his way that day and now he lands in a spot that is likely to feature other speed.

I’m most interested in two of the bigger prices in this race. One of those is Storming Chrome (#1), who stretches back out to two turns after having success going longer at Laurel earlier this year. Those were cheaper races, but he continued to move forward after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz is January. I can also make excuses for his two local starts. He wasn’t fast enough to get forward in that one-mile event two back, which was contested over a speed-favoring course. Then last time he was ridden for position but again lacked the speed to get forward in a race that featured a much faster pace. He actually stayed on gamely despite racing out of position early. I expect he can make better use of his speed going this trip.

My top pick is Surface to Air (#7), who might be the longest price in the field. This colt showed some quality early in his career, chasing home the likes of future stakes winner Lugan Knight and Corona Bolt in a pair of dirt sprints as a 2-year-old. He spent a long time in the maiden ranks thereafter, trying a variety of surfaces and distances. He’s lacked consistency, but he did run competitively going 1 1/4 miles on dirt last summer, so stamina is clearly no issue for this horse. He received a significant class drop when he returned from a layoff at Keeneland last time, and handled that field with ease. The 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure is modest compared to today’s rivals, but he’s now second off the layoff. He was also claimed out of that spot by sharp connections. Panagiotis Synnefias is 6 for 31 (19%, $2.60 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years with 25 of those 31 hitting the board. He figures to fly under the radar here, and I think this spot suits him.