Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Spun and Won in better form than last result suggests
Belmont at the Big A | Race 5 | Post Time 3:06 p.m. (ET)
If Cees Get Degrees (#1) reproduces the kind of efforts he put forth two and three back, he's going to be a handful for this field. He looked like a deserving heavy favorite when he dropped back down to the $25,000 level last time, making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He broke a step slowly and briefly tried to rush up to contest the pace, looking like he could still attain forward positioning. However, Kendrick Carmouche made the strange decision to abruptly take him in hand, dragging him all the way back to last and essentially guaranteeing defeat. Unconventional tactics of that sort obviously raise some eyebrows, and it's fair to say the horse wasn't ridden to full effect. Regardless, Cees Get Degrees was claimed again, now going out for Fernando Abreu with a new jockey. He's a contender, but I don't love that he drew the rail since he's not the best gate horse, as we saw last time.
There is plenty of other speed drawn to that runner's outside, so it's no surprise that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Burninhunkoflove (#3) is expected to be close to the front, but I appreciate that he has shown the versatility to stalk and finish. He's in great form right now for Joe Sharp and merits consideration.
Street Swagg (#8) looks like another strong contender as he makes his first start off the trainer switch to Brad Cox. This barn has had inordinate success with this move, going 8 for 14 (57%, $3.77 ROI) with trainer switches in claiming races over the past 5 years. This horse already seemed to improve off the claim for Wayne Potts and this ownership last time, dueling through quick fractions going a mile and fighting on until the end. I don't mind him turning back, but I do worry that he could get bet down for popular connections.
My top pick is Spun and Won (#7), who disappointed first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time. However, he didn't seem to appreciate getting rated so aggressively in the early stages, tugging between horses and unable to build momentum until the race had already gotten away from him in upper stretch. The pace was relatively slow, with all pace figures color-coded blue in TimeformUS. That was also a day where speed seemed to have an advantage, indicated by the red-colored Race Rating box, so his trip was far from ideal. He had earned TimeformUS Speed Figures between 109 and 112 in his three starts prior to that, and those are among the fastest numbers in this field. His outside post should allow him to adapt to the pace scenario, and he figures to get dismissed at a fair price.