Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Soviet Excess in career form heading into Sands Point
Belmont at the Big A | Race 2 | Post Time 1:10 p.m. (ET)
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I’m not thrilled with the horses exiting the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational. That race’s winner Eternal Hope (#7) could take money here, as all Charlie Appleby runners seem to when they compete in North America. However, she didn’t quite live up to her even-money favoritism last time, as she had to work pretty hard to run down some weaker rivals, despite getting a fantastic pace setup. She was one of the few horses who had proven form over that elongated distance, and it’s no guarantee that she’s going to be as effective cutting back to 9 furlongs.
The most interesting horse coming out of the Jockey Club Oaks might be Quarrel (#2), who was racing in an awkward position, far behind the run-off leader yet still well clear of the main pack. She had to make the first move into a pace for which all of the fractions are color-coded red in TimeformUS. She also may not want to go that far at this stage of her career, and she figures to play out as the controlling speed on the turnback. I’m just not sure she’s quite good enough to beat two other fillies in here.
Be Your Best (#4) might be the horse to beat after facing tougher company in most of her 2023 starts. Her form has been a little inconsistent, but she’s run well in both attempts going this 9-furlong distance. She closed well for second in the Wonder Again, earning a career-best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and then last time picked up a Grade 1 placing behind Anisette in California. She was never a threat to that heavily favored winner, but she did have the tougher trip, chasing wide on the turns. I expect her to run well in this spot.
My top pick is Soviet Excess (#1). This Todd Pletcher trainee has been underrated throughout her East Coast campaign. She’s settled for third at big prices in three consecutive stakes on this circuit, but has run deceptively well on every occasion. That was especially true last time when she made a strong rally from far back after getting squeezed out of position into the clubhouse turn. That race was dominated towards the front end, and she was the only runner to make a significant rally from the back of the pack. Now she’s drawn well on the rail, and she figures to appreciate the stretch-out to 9 furlongs. She comes in with the fastest speed figures and has kept some of the best company, yet she might not even go favored.