Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Shipsational can build on return effort stretching out
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:29 p.m. (ET)
This first-level allowance race might be the most competitive event on Saturday’s card at Aqueduct. There is no clear favorite, though Expected Value (#5) figures to vie for that role going out for the popular Chad Brown stable. He hasn’t yet won since returning from a layoff earlier this winter, but he has run pretty well in both of his starts. He got pace to close into two back in the mud and was finishing well to get up for fourth. Then last time he was perhaps not on the best part of the track when trying to close inside, ultimately just missing in a blanket finish. He has to take another step forward to beat this group, which is possible, but you’re going to find out at a short price.
Certified Loverboy (#1) exits the same race and might be a better value option at a bigger price. He was only beaten a length by Expected Value last time and also spent most of his trip racing on the rail before tiring in the last furlong. He put in a strong effort two back when making an early move into a fast pace to take over before flattening out. He has remarkably drawn the rail again, something that has happened to him in eight of his 11 starts, but he handles it well and should get a good trip switching to Dylan Davis.
The horse to beat might be Mistical Curlin (#8), even though he lacks recency, having not competed since the end of November. It’s possible that he could need a start off the layoff, but he did appear to be training well earlier this winter when entered and scratched before Gustavo Rodriguez’s barn was put under a quarantine. He has probably been ready to run for a while, and his best efforts are certainly good enough to beat this field. He also wouldn’t mind a wet track, which seems possible with rain in the forecast for Saturday.
My top pick is Shipsational (#4). He showed real ability as a 2-year-old winning a pair of New York-bred stakes before going through a rough patch over the course of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He hasn’t won in a long time, but I did think his last effort was a big step in the right direction. The pace and race flow of that Dec. 16 event didn’t set up for him at all, and he was actually finishing best of the closers through the lane. Ed Barker’s barn has been on a roll over the past few months, and Heman Harkie has been riding some live runners for the barn. I think this gelding might have another step forward in him as he makes his second start of the winter, and he shouldn’t be bothered by the added distance.