Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Run Quiet Run Fast better than local debut suggests

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:48 p.m. (ET)

Playing Tricks (#3) will probably go favored here as he ships up from Florida for Chad Brown. He's trying winners for the first time, but ran well in both starts against maiden foes. He did need plenty of time between those races, but it was a good sign that he built upon his Aqueduct debut when he returned at Gulfstream last time out. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a contender here, though I have some questions about the overall quality of the field he defeated. This is obviously a step up in class, and Chad Brown doesn't have the best statistics with these types.

Land d'Oro (#1) seems like a candidate to rebound after he was chasing wide against a track bias last time. I don't want to give him too much credit for that effort since he was sitting on top of a slow pace, but it was dominated by rail runners.

Reynolds Channel (#5) is another who was negatively affected by the prolonged rail bias in his last start. He was chasing outside throughout in a race dominated the frontrunner. He had previously shown improvement off the claim for Amelia Green when beating starter allowance foes two back. A return to that form gives him a strong chance here.

My top pick is Run Quiet Run Fast (#2), who is likely to be the biggest price of those compromised by the track bias last time. Not only was he hung three to four wide around both turns but he was also disadvantaged by a slow pace that favored the forwardly placed horses. He never got involved, but he really had no chance given his trip. This horse had shown some ability in Kentucky late last year, and seemed to handle a mile pretty well when he closed for third at this level at Ellis Park in August. He's since gotten a significant trainer switch to Tom Morley, and this should mark his first start over a fair racetrack for that new barn.