Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Rayya Valentine should appreciate Ladies distance

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET)

This Ladies Stakes drew a pretty competitive field where you can make a reasonable case for just about every runner.

Maryland invader Saddle Up Jessie (#6) has been quite the $20k claim for Brittany Russell and the connections. She’s reeled off four victories from her last five dirt attempts for Russell. Most of those wins have come around two turns, including a recent Carousel victory going this distance at Laurel. She’s coming back on fairly short rest, but she appears to fit well against this field, and her versatile running style should give jockey Sheldon Russell some options from this outside draw. She doesn’t have much of a speed figure advantage on this field, but her overall consistency makes her the horse to beat.

She’s Mo Bubbly (#4) comes in off one of the best last-out speed figures, having earned a 111 TimeformUS Figure for her recent allowance victory going this 1 1/8-mile distance. However, I would be a little skeptical of that number. While the race appeared to be fast on the day, the three horses to run back out of that race have regressed. She’s Mo Bubbly is getting a real class test here, since she’s faced weaker company in most of her dirt races. Comparative (#5) is a similar type of horse, also going out for a top barn. She has a right to improve in her second start off the layoff for Brad Cox. She showed better tactical speed in that allowance victory last time, and her two-turn experience suggests the stretch-out should be no problem.

Another horse who appears to be rounding into top form is the Brazilian import Evidencias (#2). Though she has spent most of her career racing on turf, her dirt victory last January in Brazil might have been her most impressive effort. She seemed to relish the distance as she steadily drew away from the field through the stretch. She subsequently didn’t do much running going back to turf in her first U.S. start for Christophe Clement. Yet she set her sights a bit lower last time and seemed to appreciate getting back on dirt. That race was dominated up front and she made an eye-catching wide move around the far turn. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another step forward this time.

My top pick is the lightly raced Rayya Valentine (#3). She obviously needed her first couple of starts, but she ran a lot better than it looks two back when stretched out to this distance. The inside paths were preferred on Oct. 19 and she actually did well to hang in until the late stages after racing in the three path throughout. She then took another step in the right direction last time, racing forwardly throughout before drawing off with authority. She earned a competitive 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and really finished powerfully through the lane, opening up a huge margin on her rivals past the wire on the gallop-out. She is being ambitiously moved right into stakes company, but the barn has been going well and she possesses dangerous tactical speed in a race that features a murky pace scenario.