Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Raging Sea Captain has more upside than older rivals

Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:06 p.m. (ET)

My primary opinion in this conditioned claimer is that I don't trust likely favorite Salming (#1). This horse has run against better company and owns a set of superior speed figures, but his replays don't inspire confidence. He has trouble getting out of the gate, he usually lacks much response when called upon, and his form has been steadily declining. I also don't think he really wants to go a mile.

I think a couple of horses who already competed at this level on May 2 have similar chances of winning and both figure to be better prices. Thorsness (#3) was second in that race 3 weeks ago, and Whitby (#5) faded to fifth. The former is proven at this distance and has been in solid recent form. Yet Whitby ran better than his result indicates that day, since the pace was honest and he was dueling for the lead throughout before tiring. There isn't as much pace signed on here, and both horses should be forwardly placed.

My top pick is Raging Sea Captain (#4). He's a 3-year-old stepping up to face a group of older horses, but I don't mind the age gap now that we're approaching the summer months. This colt broke his maiden going this distance last December after making a big middle move to take over on the far turn. He subsequently was overmatched and also wide against a rail bias in his 3-year-old debut in February. He dropped back down to an appropriate level last time, but was his own worst enemy. He got away very awkwardly from the starting gate and then was trying to lug in through the stretch when making his move. Ruben Silvera is familiar with his antics, but I'm hoping he can compensate for them here. If he cleans up those mistakes from last time, he can beat this field at a square price.