Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Radio Red suited by class drop and turnback

Belmont | Race 4 | Post Time 2:04 p.m. (ET)

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I have some reservations about two horses who could take money in this New York-bred allowance affair. Pineapple Man (#2) looks appealing based on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, where he is shown as the clear early leader in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, I wonder if this is just a prep for something longer. We saw Pineapple Man’s trainer, Mike Maker, recently bring back a horse of similar ability, Rotknee, who needed a start coming off the layoff. Maker’s overall numbers with this move are decent, but I suspect this could just be a prep for something longer.

I’m a little more against Zeebear (#7), who will attract support based on a starter allowance victory last time. The race earned a solid speed figure, but Zeebear had so much working in his favor that day. He closed into a wicked pace and also stayed in the outside paths on a day when the rail was a disadvantage. I’ll be surprised if he runs as well this time.

I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. My top pick is Radio Red (#6). This horse showed some hints of ability in his first couple of starts. He ran deceptively well in his return in January when getting a tentative ride in a race that looked like a prep. He then took a big step forward to break his maiden on Feb. 9, putting forth an effort that makes him competitive here. He tried the Gotham last time where he was overmatched, and he ended up chasing a fast pace that fell apart. I like the turnback and he still has upside as a 3-year-old facing older rivals.

I could also use Braciole (#1). The expected pace of this race might not suit him, but he ran better than the result indicates last time when he was racing too close to a bad rail in a race dominated on the front end. He’s otherwise been in strong form and should run well here at a square price.