Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Protected's speed should put him in advantageous position
Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:19 p.m. (ET)
This allowance race features the return of Grade 1 Hopeful third-place finisher Incentive Pay (#3). However, that was the 2024 edition of the Hopeful, and this horse hasn't run since. Chad Brown does have extremely strong statistics in this situation, going 8 for 27 (30%, $2.53 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more over the last 5 years. I'm still reticent to take too short a price on a horse who does need to improve to beat this field.
Sea Vista (#7) is stepping up out of a maiden victory, but this horse had always been well regarded by his connections and may just finally be putting things together now that he's focusing on dirt racing. He won despite chasing outside against a rail bias last time, and that 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the fastest numbers in this field.
Another horse getting a class test is Porosity (#2), who just beat starter allowance foes in his last start. This is a much stronger group, but he was impressive in victory, making up ground into a very fast final split. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the fastest number in this field, and Linda Rice has given him ample time to recover from that effort.
My top pick is Protected (#8). The Pace Projector doesn't highlight much early speed in this race, depicting three horses vying for the lead, none of which are confirmed frontrunners. This gelding showed some promise in New Jersey-bred races last year, but he has really stepped forward since returning against open company this winter. He chased the talented National Identity two back, and the form of that race was flattered when that rival returned to win a stakes. Then last time Protected was chasing outside over an extremely rail-biased surface. He held on well for third, and was the only runner among the top four finishers not to spend any time on the inside part of the track. He's drawn perfectly outside here and should get an advantageous trip stalking a moderate pace.