Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Portage tries stakes company on short rest

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 3:55 p.m. (ET)

It’s hard to poke too many holes in the likely favorite Saddle Up Jessie (#7). She’s completely turned her career around since getting claimed by these connections for just $20K early last year. Since then, she’s won 4 of 6 starts on dirt, finishing second in her only two losses for Brittany Russell. One of those runner-up finishes last time in the Ladies was arguably the best effort of her career. It was no disgrace getting outdueled to the wire by Comparative, who came back to win a Grade 3 at Oaklawn in her next start. She’s concentrated on two-turn races for her entire time in the Russell barn, so she does have to prove she can handle the cutback. I expect her to run well, but didn’t want to settle for a short price on a horse with exposed form.

Linda Rice sends out a pair of entrants. Movie Moxy (#6) would have been highly competitive in a spot like this early last summer when she was winning some high-level allowance races at Belmont. However, she had a series of setbacks thereafter and was a vet scratch on multiple occasions through the rest of last year. She ran like a horse who needed the race on return in December, but now she’s been off for another two months.

My top pick is another Rice entrant. Portage (#3) was a late addition to this race after making her return from a layoff just six days ago. This mare had taken a big step forward to win her maiden at Saratoga last summer and arguably improved on that effort two back when winning an N1X allowance going this distance. That day she pressured a fast pace and did well to hold off the closers. She got some time off prior to that return last week, where she looked like she was just getting a prep going a distance that is too short for her. I like this aggressive placement for her second start off the layoff. Rice is a remarkable 5 for 10 (50 percent, $4.40 ROI), with 9 of 10 finishing in the exacta, running back in less than 10 days in stakes races over the past five years. Furthermore, there isn’t much pace in here, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts her alone on the lead in a No Speed situation.

The other horse I would consider is Into Happiness (#5), who got the wrong trip last time when she was too close to the pace going a distance that may be too far for her. I like her cutting back to a one-turn race, but she needs some pace to develop, and it’s unclear that will happen.