Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Pop Coyer lands in realistic spot first off the claim
Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:08 p.m. (ET)
A few of the contenders likely to attract support in this statebred allowance event exit the same Jan. 11 race at this level. On the Hill (#8) achieved the best result of those coming back in this spot, rallying for second behind superior winner Graywing. He did have to angle pretty wide to launch his rally but he worked out a decent trip overall, closing into a contested early pace. He’s the kind of horse who is able to adapt to various pace scenarios, since he’s just as effective setting the pace as he is rallying past horses. He drew well outside and isn’t meeting a field that’s any tougher than last time.
Kid Billy (#5) ran just as well as that rival despite settling for third in the same spot last time. He got off to a slow start and had to make a wide move on the far turn before flattening out late. I didn’t love the way he hung on his left lead all the way through the stretch, but he did do some real running in the middle of the race. I just question this horse’s competitive spirit. He won his debut showing tenacity, and he just hasn’t shown that same grit in any of his starts since then. He clearly has raw ability, but I have greater trust that others will bear down and fight in that final eighth of a mile.
Heavyweight Champs (#4) is another who might take money exiting the Jan. 11 affair, but lacked his typical early speed that day. He has a right to move forward second off the layoff, but I don’t want to settle for a short price, especially going out for a barn that has been cold at this meet. Among those likely to be forwardly placed, I prefer Limit Up (#3), who seemed to improve in the second half of last season at Finger Lakes. He beat a much weaker field last time, but he now gets a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco and goes out for a barn that can get these types to transfer their form to NYRA.
My top pick is Limit Up’s uncoupled stablemate Pop Coyer (#6). He makes his first start for Chris Englehart, who has a solid record of 30-6-4-6 (20%, $2.25 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Aqueduct over the past three years. This is another runner who spent most of the last year competing at Finger Lakes. He had plenty of success at that venue, winning three races in a row last fall before coming to Aqueduct. He actually caught a pretty tough field in that New York-bred $25k claimer last time, and got mildly shuffled back early before staying on at one pace. TimeformUS Race Ratings suggest this is actually a slight drop in class even as he moves into allowance company. He has some form that fits here and Sofia Vives should be a good fit for a horse who does best when he launches a wide, sustained run.