Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Paula's a Star can shine against the boys in Jimmy Winkfield

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET)

Two of the main players in this Jimmy Winkfield completed the exacta in an allowance/optional-claimer last month. That was the second victory in a row for T Kraft (#1), who appears to have finally gotten his act together after inconsistency plagued him as a 2-year-old. He ran so well when holding on for second behind future Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick last August, but then struggled to get back to that form in his subsequent starts. The momentum seemed to shift for him once Bill Mott added Lasix two back, and he produced two wins in a row. The problem is that he now has to come off Lasix to try stakes company here. I also don't like that he's broken a step slowly in each of his last two starts, and that could be a problem if he does so again breaking from the rail here. I still prefer him to Ican (#6), who didn't have much of an excuse to lose last time after getting the jump on his rival. He's never run a particularly fast speed figure, and just needs to show more at this level.

Both Maryland shippers are intriguing. Saxton (#5) has a recency edge after winning an optional claimer last month. He got a very good trip setting a moderate pace, but was still game to dig in when passed in upper stretch, coming back on for the victory. He now makes his first start off the claim for Brittany Russell, who is 9 for 22 (41%, $2.19 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints over five years. Do It for Michael (#4) ran just as fast as that rival during his 2-year-old season, but he's coming off a layoff here. He finished just behind Saxton when they met in the James F. Lewis in November despite setting a pretty slow pace. I trust Saxton more, and would be inclined to take that one if they're similar prices.

My top pick Paula's a Star (#2) is the lone filly facing males. Yet this won't be the first time she's met the boys, as she debuted in an open maiden field as a 2-year-old. She didn't break that sharply, chasing outside early before diving inside to finish with interest. It took her a long time to get back to the races after that, but she looked like a more professional filly when she returned against her own sex last month. She broke very sharply from an inside draw and quickly established a commanding lead. She got a little tired late, but had to a right to do so going 6 1/2 furlongs off a layoff. Her pace-upgraded 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number achieved by anyone in this field, and I don't think she's catching the toughest field of males for this stakes debut. Maddy Olver is an aggressive rider and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she can make the lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner.