Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Paris Style steps up off impressive maiden win

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:18 p.m. (ET)

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Coppa Girl (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as she stretches back out to nine furlongs after rebounding nicely from a poor effort in her return from a freshening last time. She didn’t break that well on Nov. 26, but advanced into the race willingly and produced a strong kick. She was just unfortunate to meet recent Linda Rice claim Ain’t Broke, who delivered a huge win in fast time. That filly returned to win her next start just as impressively, validating Coppa Girl’s last-out 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Stretching back out is a bit of a question mark given how poorly she ran going this distance at Saratoga. Yet she had some trouble in the early stages that day and probably didn’t deliver a true effort. I’m not against her, but I just didn’t think she’d offer much value.

She’s Mo Bubbly (#8) is the other horse likely to take significant money in this spot as she gets back to dirt. Even though she’s spent half her career on turf, she’s achieved her best results on dirt. However, she earned her two highest speed figures this summer at Saratoga in off-the-turf races where she was primarily beating horses meant for grass. She also rode a strong speed bias when she won by over 10 lengths going this distance on Aug. 30. I actually prefer a horse who finished behind She’s Mo Bubbly in that spot.

Paris Style (#2) took a while to break through, and was developing the look of a professional maiden after settling for minor awards in a series of races this summer and fall. However, she was compromised by the speed bias when she chased home She’s Mo Bubbly in August, and then was caught wide against a dead rail two back on Oct. 19. She clearly ran the best race that day to just miss despite the disadvantageous trip. She was overdue for a maiden victory last time, and she achieved it quite convincingly. I like her stretching back out to nine furlongs, and she’s drawn well inside. Kenny McPeek is 15 for 90 (17%, $2.68 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over the past five years.