Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Obrigada can rebound on fast track

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:48 p.m. (ET)

The horse with the most natural talent in this first-level allowance affair is probably Amaretti (#5), who makes her return from another layoff. This 5-year-old mare has struggled to put races back to back, requiring a 10-month layoff following her debut, and now returning from a 9-month hiatus after making just two starts last year. She showed talent as a 3-year-old, finishing second to the promising Union Lake before returning with a big effort to break her maiden by 7 lengths last year. However, she regressed significantly when last seen in the slop at Belmont. She was subsequently a vet scratch in June of that year before going to the sidelines. She’s the one to beat on her best day, but there has to be some concern that she won’t return to top form after all this time away.

The Rick Dutrow entry of Fancy Azteca (#1) and Kid’s Last Laugh (#1A) could also take money int his spot. Fancy Azteca has the stronger overall résumé, but I didn’t think she had a major excuse last time when fading in the slop after contesting the pace. Perhaps getting back on a fast track will suit her, but she figures to face pace pressure again. Kid’s Last Laugh appears to have more upside, but she has beaten much weaker company in both of her local victories.

I don’t think former longtime maiden Risk Free (#2) should be underestimated in this spot despite her 1 for 22 career record. She finally got her maiden diploma in her 21st attempt, but she earned a competitive speed figure that day and came back to validate that performance last time. She did well to finish third at this level after racing extremely wide every step of the way.

My top pick is Obrigada (#6). She’s also returning from a layoff, but hasn’t been away from the track for quite as long as the favorite. She showed talent for different barns early in her career and looked like a savvy claim by Linda Rice at Ellis Park last summer. However, she was very disappointing in her first NYRA start, fading after failing to make the lead. She rebounded with a much better effort at the end of July, overcoming a poor start to gradually advance and pull clear to a convincing victory. We only see her one more time last year in October where she caught a sloppy track that she didn’t appear to relish. Irad Ortiz basically wrapped up on her before the quarter pole once she wasn’t handling the surface. Now she returns from a layoff, and I’m encouraged to see there’s no drop in class for Linda Rice. I like the outside post for a filly who needs to be in the clear to have her best chance.