Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Morlock should be tough to catch if rail bias persists

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:12 p.m. (ET)

A strong rail bias took hold of Aqueduct's dirt surface over a week ago and hasn't loosened its grip since. Day after day, horses who hug the inside path find an extra gear in upper stretch while those who stay outside start spinning their wheels. At this point, it seems reasonable to let the bias guide your handicapping.

That certainly applies to this starter allowance race, where one horse should be quick enough to control the pace on the front end. The TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts Morlock (#2) stalking in second early, but his inside post position should allow Jose Lezcano to make the front over his outside-drawn pace rival. I can't say that I love this horse's recent form, but he did once show quite a bit of potential for his former connections. He held his own against the likes of Magnitude in his second start and earned some solid speed figures in subsequent maiden fields in Kentucky. He had to ultimately drop in for a tag to get his maiden diploma when last seen in November, but he won convincingly that day. He now makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who excels with this move. According to DRF Formulator, Rice is 12 for 41 (29%, $2.61 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt over the last 5 years. It's also typically a good sign when this barn moves horses up in class off the claim.

The horse that I would have liked just as much as, if not more than, the top pick if it were a fair track is Sergeant Capps (#4). This horse was against the rail bias when it first appeared last week, getting a wide trip from post 12 against a tougher field at this level. He ran a speed figure that would make him tough here going this distance two back, but he will have to find a way to save ground from a stalking position under Jaime Rodriguez.

Baron of Sealand (#1) is moving back up in class but he should get the right trip form his rail draw. Sinister Smile (#9) is another horse who fits based on his form and previously handled a mile before concentrating on sprints recently. He's just drawn in the far outside post, but at least he's ridden by Manny Franco, who has been riding the bias well this week.